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NFLApril 28, 2022

2022 NFL Draft

Sauce Gardner's Lockdown and the Travon Walker Reach

What Happened vs What Should've Happened

Compare the original draft order with career-based re-rankings

📋
Original Draft
🔄
Re-Draft by Career AV
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The Scenario

Jacksonville took Travon Walker #1 — a projection pick over proven talent. The Jets grabbed Sauce Gardner at #4 and watched him become the best corner in football immediately.Two years in: Sauce is DROY + All-Pro. Walker is... still developing? The Jets won. Jacksonville is still reaching.

Analysis based on our NFL Methodology — weighing team environment, position development history, and situational factors.
DE

Travon Walker

#1 • Jaguars

Raw, improving
DE

Aidan Hutchinson

#2 • Lions

Pro Bowl
CB

Sauce Gardner

#4 • Jets

DROY, All-Pro
WR

Garrett Wilson

#10 • Jets

OROY
INSTANT LOCKDOWN

Sauce Gardner → New York Jets (#4)

92/100
FactorRatingWeightContribution
DC (Jeff Ulbrich's scheme)85/10018%15.3
D-Line Support (Quinnen Williams)90/10015%13.5
CB Room (D.J. Reed pairing)88/10015%13.2
HC (Robert Saleh's DB background)90/10015%13.5
Scheme Freedom92/10012%11.0
Team Defensive Identity90/10015%13.5
Media Market Challenge75/10010%7.5
TOTAL FIT SCORE87.5

What Happened

Sauce was immediately the best corner in football. DROY, All-Pro, shutdown coverage with rare ball skills. The Jets built a defense around their corners, let Sauce travel with WR1s, and he erased them. Saleh's DB background + strong D-line + clear defensive identity = perfect environment for a generational corner.

THE HOMETOWN HERO

Aidan Hutchinson → Detroit Lions (#2)

88/100
FactorRatingWeightContribution
HC (Dan Campbell's energy)92/10015%13.8
DC (Aaron Glenn's scheme)88/10018%15.8
Defensive Investment85/10015%12.8
Hometown Connection95/10012%11.4
Team Culture Turnaround90/10015%13.5
GM Vision (Brad Holmes)88/10015%13.2
City Support90/10010%9.0
TOTAL FIT SCORE89.0

What Happened

Hutch went home to Michigan and immediately became the face of the Lions' turnaround. Pro Bowl edge rusher, led with 11.5 sacks as a rookie. Campbell's culture + Detroit's investment in defense + playing for his hometown team = perfect motivation and environment. He's not just playing for the Lions — he's playing for Detroit.

THE PROJECTION PICK

Travon Walker → Jacksonville Jaguars (#1)

52/100
FactorRatingWeightContribution
HC (Doug Pederson)75/10015%11.3
DC (Mike Caldwell)60/10018%10.8
Development Plan55/10015%8.3
Production vs. Projection40/10015%6.0
D-Line Support65/10012%7.8
Patience for Growth60/10015%9.0
Sack Production Pressure45/10010%4.5
TOTAL FIT SCORE56.8

What Happened

Walker had 9.5 sacks in his first two years combined — decent, not #1 overall numbers. Jacksonville bet on athletic upside over college production. The projection hasn't fully materialized yet. He's improving, but when you pass on proven pass rushers for "upside," you better be right. The jury's still out.

WHAT IF

Travon Walker → Detroit Lions

65/100

The Alternate Timeline

Campbell's culture demands effort. Aaron Glenn could develop raw athleticism. The Lions' defensive investment would give Walker more support. Detroit's high-energy environment might have unlocked more of Walker's potential faster. But he'd still need time — and Detroit had Hutch waiting as the perfect fit anyway.

The 2022 Edge/CB Class

🟢

Sauce (NYJ #4)

92

DROY, All-Pro

🟢

Hutch (DET #2)

88

Pro Bowl

🟡

Walker (DET)

65

Hypothetical

🟡

Walker (JAX #1)

52

Still developing

+13

Hypothetical point swing: Walker in Detroit vs. Jacksonville

The Verdict

Traditional Re-Draft Says:

"Sauce #1, Hutchinson #2, Garrett Wilson #3, Walker drops to 8-10"

Contextual Re-Draft Says:

"The Jets created the perfect environment for a lockdown corner. Detroit created the perfect environment for an edge rusher. Jacksonville bet on projection and is still waiting for the payoff."

2022 shows why fit matters more than athleticism. Sauce fit the Jets' defensive identity perfectly. Hutch fit Detroit's culture and hometown narrative. Walker fit Jacksonville's hope for upside — but hope isn't a strategy. Take the proven talent in the right context.