NFL Methodology
Why NFL Context Is Different
NFL careers are brutally short. The average career is 3.3 years. Players don't get the luxury of a 4-year development timeline — they need to produce quickly or they're replaced. This means immediate fit matters more than long-term potential.
A quarterback behind a bad offensive line doesn't get time to develop — he gets sacked, injured, and benched. Context isn't a modifier in the NFL; it's often the primary determinant of success.
The NFL Formula
NFL weighting emphasizes team environment heavily because the sport's violence and complexity mean players can't overcome bad situations through individual talent alone.
Context Factor Framework
The 10 factors we score for every draft pick:
| Factor | Base Weight | Data Quality | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head Coach Quality | 15% | ✅ Good | Pro Football Reference |
| OC Rating | 10% | 🔨 Building | Original Research |
| DC Rating | 10% | 🔨 Building | Original Research |
| O-Line Quality | 12% | ⚠️ Medium | rbsdm.com EPA |
| Defensive Quality | 8% | ⚠️ Medium | rbsdm.com EPA |
| Skill Position Depth | 10% | ✅ Good | PFR Stats |
| Owner/FO Stability | 10% | 📊 Subjective | Rankings + Research |
| Draft Capital Position | 10% | ✅ Excellent | Kaggle Dataset |
| Team Win% (prior year) | 5% | ✅ Excellent | Pro Football Reference |
| Scheme Fit | 10% | 📊 Subjective | Original Research |
Position-Specific Weight Adjustments
Base weights shift based on what matters most for each position:
| Position | O-Line | OC/Scheme | Weapons | QB Quality | DC/Def Scheme |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 20% | 15% | 15% | — | — |
| RB | 25% | 15% | — | — | — |
| WR/TE | — | 15% | — | 15% | — |
| OL | — | 10% | — | — | — |
| DL/LB/DB | — | — | — | — | 15% |
Development Modifier Formula
Each team has a historical track record at specific positions. This creates a multiplier:
Modifier < 1.0 = Team historically fails at this position
Modifier = 1.0 = League average
High Modifiers (1.2+)
- • Packers → QB (1.4)
- • Steelers → WR (1.3)
- • Ravens → LB (1.35)
- • Cowboys → OL (1.25)
Low Modifiers (0.8-)
- • Browns → QB (0.5) 1999-2017
- • Patriots → WR (0.7)
- • Raiders → QB (0.6)
- • Bears → QB (0.65)
Team Environment (40%)
The largest factor — your supporting cast and coaching determine your ceiling.
Head Coach (10%)
- • Win % — Career and recent 3-year record
- • Tenure — Stability vs. hot seat pressure
- • Development History — Track record with rookies at position
- • Scheme Flexibility — Will they adapt to player's strengths?
Coordinator (12%)
- • Scheme Fit — Does their system match player's skills?
- • QB Development (for QBs) — How have previous QBs performed?
- • Play-Caller History — Aggressive? Conservative? Creative?
Supporting Cast (12%)
- • O-Line Grade — Pass block win rate, run block grade
- • Skill Weapons — WR/TE/RB quality for QBs
- • QB Quality — For skill position players
- • Defensive Front — For defensive players
Ownership/Front Office (6%)
- • Stability — Coaching carousel history
- • Investment — Cap management, facility quality
- • Culture — Player-friendly? Dysfunction history?
Position Development History (25%)
This is our competitive advantage. We track every team's history developing specific positions over the past 15 years.
Position Graveyards
- • Browns QBs (1999-2017) — 0 Pro Bowlers in 18 years
- • Patriots WRs — N'Keal Harry, Chad Jackson, Aaron Dobson
- • Raiders 1st Round QBs — JaMarcus Russell legacy
Position Factories
- • Packers QBs — Favre → Rodgers → Love
- • Ravens LBs — Lewis, Suggs, Mosley
- • Steelers WRs — Ward, Brown, JuJu, Johnson
How We Calculate Position Dev Score
- • Draft picks at position in last 15 years
- • % that made Pro Bowl / All-Pro
- • Average AV (Approximate Value) vs. league average
- • Bust rate (out of league within 3 years)
Situational Factors (15%)
Draft Position Pressure (5%)
#1 picks get 2-3 year leashes. #32 picks get 5+ years. Higher picks face more scrutiny and shorter timelines to produce.
Market Size (5%)
NYC/LA media pressure vs. Green Bay patience. Big markets amplify struggles; small markets allow quiet development.
Team Mode (5%)
Win-now teams need immediate contributors. Rebuilding teams can afford patience. Mismatches hurt both.
Player Factors (20%)
The player's own traits that interact with their environment.
| Factor | Weight | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|
| Pro Readiness | 8% | Can they contribute Day 1? College system complexity, NFL-ready skills |
| Scheme Dependency | 6% | Do they need a specific system? Versatile vs. specialized |
| Mental Makeup | 6% | Handle adversity? Leadership? Work ethic reputation? |
Position-Specific Weights
Different positions care about different factors:
| Position | Primary Factor | Secondary | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | OC + O-Line | HC stability, Weapons | Can't develop while getting sacked |
| RB | O-Line + Scheme | Workload share | Holes matter more than legs |
| WR | QB Quality | Target share, Scheme | Best route runner means nothing with bad QB |
| TE | Scheme Usage | QB, Blocking needs | Some teams barely throw to TEs |
| OL | OL Coach | Scheme fit, Unit quality | Technique-dependent position |
| EDGE | DC Scheme | DL support | 3-4 vs 4-3 role difference |
| DT | Scheme Fit | Run D priority | 1-tech vs 3-tech matters |
| LB | Scheme Role | Coverage demands | Modern LBs need coverage skills |
| CB | Coverage Scheme | Pass rush quality | Man vs zone specialists |
NFL Data Sources
- • Player Value: Pro Football Reference Approximate Value (AV)
- • O-Line Grades: PFF pass block win rate, rbsdm.com EPA
- • Coaching Records: Pro Football Reference career data
- • Draft History: Pro Football Reference, Kaggle datasets
- • Coordinator History: Original research tracking every coordinator change
📋 Coordinator Database
Our proprietary dataset tracking 320+ coordinator-seasons from 2015-2024.
Sample Data (2024 Season)
| Team | Head Coach | OC | DC |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Andy Reid | Matt Nagy | Steve Spagnuolo |
| SF | Kyle Shanahan | HC Calls Plays | Nick Sorensen |
| DET | Dan Campbell | Ben Johnson | Aaron Glenn |
| PHI | Nick Sirianni | Kellen Moore | Vic Fangio |
| WAS | Dan Quinn | Kliff Kingsbury | Joe Whitt Jr |
🌳 Coaching Trees
We track how coaching philosophies spread through the NFL. This affects scheme fit predictions and helps identify which coordinators are likely to become head coaches.
🏈 Belichick
Defensive mastery, situational football
🌲 Shanahan
Zone running, play-action, motion
🦅 Reid
West Coast + RPOs, creativity
🎬 McVay
Pre-snap motion, young offensive minds