What Happened vs What Should've Happened
Compare the original draft order with career-based re-rankings
The Scenario
Carolina traded up to #1 for Bryce Young — the undersized Heisman winner. Houston took CJ Stroud at #2. Anthony Richardson went #4 to Indy. Year 1 verdict: Stroud was electric, AR15 was electric when healthy, and Bryce Young was benched.
Bryce Young
#1 • Panthers
CJ Stroud
#2 • Texans
Anthony Richardson
#4 • Colts
Will Levis
#33 • Titans
CJ Stroud → Houston Texans (#2)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (DeMeco Ryans) | 90/100 | 15% | 13.5 |
| OC (Bobby Slowik) | 85/100 | 18% | 15.3 |
| Offensive Line | 70/100 | 15% | 10.5 |
| Skill Weapons (Dell, Collins, Diggs) | 95/100 | 20% | 19.0 |
| GM (Nick Caserio) | 90/100 | 12% | 10.8 |
| Market | 75/100 | 10% | 7.5 |
| Ownership | 85/100 | 10% | 8.5 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 87.5 | ||
What Happened
Houston built a perfect situation: first-year coach with a Shanahan system, loaded WR room, and a GM who knew what he was doing. Stroud set rookie records, led a playoff comeback, and looked like a franchise QB from day 1. Best rookie QB season since Herbert. Maybe ever.
Bryce Young → Carolina Panthers (#1)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Frank Reich → Canales) | 30/100 | 15% | 4.5 |
| OC (carousel) | 20/100 | 18% | 3.6 |
| Offensive Line | 20/100 | 20% | 4.0 |
| Skill Weapons | 35/100 | 15% | 5.3 |
| GM Moves (traded away picks) | 15/100 | 12% | 1.8 |
| Trade Cost Pressure | 15/100 | 10% | 1.5 |
| Ownership (Tepper) | 20/100 | 10% | 2.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 24.8 | ||
What Happened
Carolina gave up 5 premium picks to move up for Bryce. Then put him behind a terrible line with no weapons and fired the coach after one year. Young got benched, then un-benched, then benched again. The trade gutted their roster. The situation was impossible. Even Mahomes would've struggled behind that line.
Anthony Richardson → Indianapolis Colts (#4)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Shane Steichen) | 80/100 | 15% | 12.0 |
| System Fit (RPO, designed runs) | 85/100 | 18% | 15.3 |
| Offensive Line | 70/100 | 15% | 10.5 |
| Physical Tools | 98/100 | 15% | 14.7 |
| Injury Concerns | 35/100 | 17% | 6.0 |
| Decision-making (raw) | 45/100 | 10% | 4.5 |
| Ownership | 70/100 | 10% | 7.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 65.2 | ||
What Happened
AR15 showed jaw-dropping plays and equally jaw-dropping injuries. When healthy, he's the most physically gifted QB since Cam Newton. But he's rarely healthy. Indy's commitment to building around his unique skillset is the right approach. Ceiling: MVP. Floor: injury-shortened career. TBD.
CJ Stroud → Carolina Panthers (#1)
The Alternate Timeline
Would Stroud be ROY behind Carolina's line? Probably not. He'd be running for his life, throwing to backup-caliber receivers, with a revolving door at coach.Stroud is excellent. But even excellent QBs need context. Carolina's situation would have buried him too.
The Year 1 Comparison
Stroud (HOU)
ROY, playoffs
AR15 (IND)
High ceiling
Stroud (CAR)
Hypothetical
Bryce (CAR)
Benched
Point swing: Stroud (HOU) vs. Young (CAR) — context is everything
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Stroud #1, AR15 #2, Young drops to day 2"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"Stroud was the right pick — but Houston's situation made him look elite. Young might still be good somewhere else. Carolina's dysfunction could ruin any QB."
Carolina gave up 5 picks for the #1 pick, then created the worst possible situation for any QB to succeed. Houston built a perfect environment and got an instant star. Same draft class, opposite outcomes. Context beats talent.