2021 NFL Draft
The "Generational" QB Class That Wasn't
What Happened vs What Should've Happened
Compare the original draft order with career-based re-rankings
The Scenario
Trevor Lawrence was the "best prospect since Andrew Luck." Five QBs went in the top 15. Analysts called it the best QB class in years. Three years later: most are busts, one went to the AFC Championship, and Jacksonville is still figuring things out.
Trevor Lawrence
#1 • Jags
Zach Wilson
#2 • Jets
Trey Lance
#3 • 49ers
Justin Fields
#11 • Bears
Mac Jones
#15 • Pats
Trevor Lawrence → Jacksonville Jaguars (#1)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Urban Meyer → Pederson) | 55/100 | 15% | 8.3 |
| Year 1 Coaching (Urban) | 15/100 | 15% | 2.3 |
| Offensive Line | 55/100 | 18% | 9.9 |
| Skill Weapons | 65/100 | 17% | 11.1 |
| Organization History | 35/100 | 15% | 5.3 |
| Market (Small) | 70/100 | 10% | 7.0 |
| Ownership (Khan) | 50/100 | 10% | 5.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 58.2 | ||
What Happened
Year 1 under Urban Meyer was a disaster — 3-14, off-field scandals, worst coach in NFL history. Pederson arrived and things improved: AFC Championship in year 2. But Lawrence still hasn't reached his ceiling. The talent is there. The early damage may have cost crucial development time.Jury's still out, but context robbed him of year 1.
Zach Wilson → New York Jets (#2)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Robert Saleh) | 60/100 | 12% | 7.2 |
| OC Stability | 40/100 | 18% | 7.2 |
| Offensive Line | 35/100 | 20% | 7.0 |
| Market (NYC) | 25/100 | 15% | 3.8 |
| QB Dev History (Jets) | 15/100 | 20% | 3.0 |
| Mental Makeup | 30/100 | 10% | 3.0 |
| Accountability | 25/100 | 5% | 1.3 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 28.4 | ||
What Happened
The Jets being the Jets: another young QB destroyed. Bad protection, no development, NYC pressure. Wilson's "I don't think I let the defense down" moment was the nail in the coffin. Benched, then released. The Jets have ruined more QB prospects than any franchise. Wilson joins Darnold, Sanchez, and countless others.
Trey Lance → San Francisco 49ers (#3)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Kyle Shanahan) | 90/100 | 15% | 13.5 |
| System Fit | 50/100 | 18% | 9.0 |
| Development Path (behind Jimmy) | 45/100 | 15% | 6.8 |
| Injury (broken ankle) | 15/100 | 20% | 3.0 |
| Experience Gap (17 college games) | 25/100 | 17% | 4.3 |
| Trade Capital Pressure | 30/100 | 10% | 3.0 |
| Purdy Emergence | 20/100 | 5% | 1.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 35.2 | ||
What Happened
SF traded 3 first-round picks for Lance. He played 17 games in college. Then broke his ankle in game 2 of year 2. Meanwhile, Mr. Irrelevant (Brock Purdy) became the starter and went to the Super Bowl. Lance got traded for a 4th rounder.The cost: 3 firsts. The return: 17 NFL games and a 4th rounder.
Justin Fields → Chicago Bears (#11)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Nagy → Eberflus) | 40/100 | 12% | 4.8 |
| Offensive Line | 25/100 | 20% | 5.0 |
| Skill Weapons | 35/100 | 18% | 6.3 |
| System Fit (defense-first) | 35/100 | 15% | 5.3 |
| Running Ability | 95/100 | 15% | 14.3 |
| Development | 40/100 | 10% | 4.0 |
| Organization Direction | 45/100 | 10% | 4.5 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 44.8 | ||
What Happened
Chicago gave Fields nothing — worst weapons in the league, no line, defensive-minded staff. He still broke the QB rushing record. Then they traded him to Pittsburgh for pennies and drafted Caleb Williams. We'll never know what Fields could've been with actual support. The Bears wasted 3 years of a dynamic talent.
The "Generational" QB Class
Lawrence
TBD
Fields
Wasted
Lance
Traded
Wilson
Bust
Jones
Backup
Point swing: Lawrence (#1) vs. Wilson (#2) — same class, very different contexts
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Lawrence #1, maybe Fields #2, everyone else way down"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"This entire class was context-dependent. Lawrence needed better year 1. Fields needed weapons. Wilson needed not-the-Jets. Lance needed experience. None were set up to succeed."
The "best QB class in years" produced zero Pro Bowl starters through year 3.Evaluation was bad. Context was worse. The lesson: "generational" means nothing without the right situation.