2020 NFL Draft
The COVID Draft: Burrow, Tua, and Herbert Walk Into a Pandemic
What Happened vs What Should've Happened
Compare the original draft order with career-based re-rankings
The Scenario
Joe Burrow's historic LSU season made him the consensus #1. Tua Tagovailoa went #5 despite hip injury concerns. Justin Herbert fell to #6 because he was "too quiet." Three years later, Herbert and Burrow are perennial MVP candidates. Tua is... complicated.
Joe Burrow
Pick #1 • Bengals
Tua Tagovailoa
Pick #5 • Dolphins
Justin Herbert
Pick #6 • Chargers
Joe Burrow → Cincinnati Bengals (#1)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Zac Taylor) | 70/100 | 12% | 8.4 |
| OC (Brian Callahan) | 80/100 | 18% | 14.4 |
| Offensive Line (Year 1) | 25/100 | 15% | 3.8 |
| Skill Weapons (Chase, Higgins) | 95/100 | 20% | 19.0 |
| Ohio Connection | 90/100 | 10% | 9.0 |
| Ownership Investment | 75/100 | 15% | 11.3 |
| Culture Fit | 90/100 | 10% | 9.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 81.7 | ||
What Happened
Burrow tore his ACL year 1 behind a terrible line. Cincinnati responded by drafting Ja'Marr Chase (his LSU weapon) and improving protection. Year 2: Super Bowl. Year 3: AFC Championship.The Bengals' commitment to building around him — not despite the early injury — made the difference.
Justin Herbert → Los Angeles Chargers (#6)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Anthony Lynn → Staley) | 75/100 | 12% | 9.0 |
| Offensive System | 80/100 | 18% | 14.4 |
| Offensive Line | 70/100 | 15% | 10.5 |
| Skill Weapons (Allen, Williams) | 85/100 | 20% | 17.0 |
| Market (LA) | 65/100 | 10% | 6.5 |
| Ownership (Spanos) | 50/100 | 15% | 7.5 |
| Playoff Luck | 40/100 | 10% | 4.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 77.5 | ||
What Happened
Herbert won ROY throwing to a loaded WR room, then put up 5,000 yards in year 2. The arm talent is generational. But Spanos ownership and Chargers curse mean zero playoff wins so far.Rivers 2.0? Elite QB, organization can't close.
Tua Tagovailoa → Miami Dolphins (#5)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Flores → McDaniel) | 70/100 | 12% | 8.4 |
| Offensive System | 85/100 | 18% | 15.3 |
| Skill Weapons (Hill, Waddle) | 95/100 | 20% | 19.0 |
| Offensive Line | 45/100 | 15% | 6.8 |
| Injury Management | 25/100 | 15% | 3.8 |
| Pressure to Perform | 40/100 | 10% | 4.0 |
| Ownership | 60/100 | 10% | 6.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 54.8 | ||
What Happened
Tua showed flashes — elite accuracy, quick release, system fit. But the concussions changed everything. Miami's handling of his injuries drew league investigation. His 2023 before injury was MVP-caliber, but longevity is now the question. Talent is there. Health may never be.
Joe Burrow → Miami Dolphins (#5)
The Alternate Timeline
If the Dolphins had #1 overall, Burrow goes to Miami instead. Hill, Waddle, McDaniel's system — he'd be incredible. But no Ja'Marr Chase reunion. No Ohio homecoming narrative. No Bengals fairytale. Still a star, but a different story entirely.
The QB Class Comparison
Burrow (CIN)
Super Bowl, franchise savior
Herbert (LAC)
Elite stats, no playoff wins
Tua (MIA)
Talented, injury-prone
Point swing between Burrow and Tua based on context + health
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Herbert #1, Burrow #2, Tua drops"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"Burrow to Cincinnati was destiny — the Chase reunion, the Ohio story, the culture fit. Herbert anywhere is elite. Tua's ceiling depends entirely on health context."
The pandemic draft delivered three franchise QBs. Two are superstars. One is a question mark through no fault of his own. Sometimes context is medical staff and injury luck.