2018 NFL Draft
Five QBs, Four Busts? (And One MVP)
What Happened vs What Should've Happened
Compare the original draft order with career-based re-rankings
The Scenario
Cleveland took Baker Mayfield #1. The Jets traded up for Sam Darnold. Josh Rosen was "the most NFL-ready." Josh Allen was "too raw." Lamar Jackson slid to #32 because teams wanted to make him a wide receiver. Five years later, only two are still starting.
Baker Mayfield
#1 • Browns
Sam Darnold
#3 • Jets
Josh Allen
#7 • Bills
Josh Rosen
#10 • Cardinals
Lamar Jackson
#32 • Ravens
Josh Allen → Buffalo Bills (#7)
Team Context (2018)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Sean McDermott) | 80/100 | 12% | 9.6 |
| OC (Brian Daboll) | 85/100 | 18% | 15.3 |
| Offensive Line | 65/100 | 20% | 13.0 |
| Skill Weapons | 60/100 | 15% | 9.0 |
| QB Dev History | 70/100 | 20% | 14.0 |
| Draft Pressure (#7) | 80/100 | 8% | 6.4 |
| Ownership (Pegulas) | 75/100 | 7% | 5.3 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 78.6 | ||
What Happened
Brian Daboll built a system around Allen's cannon arm while he developed accuracy. The Bills were patient, added Stefon Diggs, and let Allen grow. Result: back-to-back MVP top-3 finishes, perennial playoff team, and the Bills' best QB since Jim Kelly.Raw tools + right development = superstar.
Lamar Jackson → Baltimore Ravens (#32)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (John Harbaugh) | 90/100 | 12% | 10.8 |
| OC (Greg Roman) | 95/100 | 18% | 17.1 |
| Offensive Line | 80/100 | 20% | 16.0 |
| Run-First Identity | 95/100 | 15% | 14.3 |
| QB Dev History | 75/100 | 20% | 15.0 |
| Draft Pressure (#32) | 95/100 | 8% | 7.6 |
| Ownership (Bisciotti) | 85/100 | 7% | 6.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 85.4 | ||
What Happened
Baltimore completely rebuilt their offense around Lamar's unique skillset. Greg Roman designed a system nobody had seen before. Unanimous MVP at 23. The Ravens committed fully rather than forcing him into a traditional pocket role.The team adapted to the player — not the other way around.
Baker Mayfield → Cleveland Browns (#1)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Hue Jackson) | 15/100 | 12% | 1.8 |
| OC (Todd Haley) | 40/100 | 18% | 7.2 |
| Offensive Line | 50/100 | 20% | 10.0 |
| Skill Weapons | 70/100 | 15% | 10.5 |
| QB Dev History | 10/100 | 20% | 2.0 |
| Draft Pressure (#1) | 25/100 | 8% | 2.0 |
| Ownership (Haslam) | 30/100 | 7% | 2.1 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 41.8 | ||
What Happened
Baker had a record-breaking rookie year, then Cleveland cycled through 4 coaches and 3 offensive systems in 4 years. The dysfunction that's buried 30+ QBs finally got him too. Now he's bouncing around the league showing flashes in better situations.Cleveland's curse continues.
Sam Darnold → New York Jets (#3)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Todd Bowles) | 35/100 | 12% | 4.2 |
| OC (Jeremy Bates) | 25/100 | 18% | 4.5 |
| Offensive Line | 25/100 | 20% | 5.0 |
| Skill Weapons | 30/100 | 15% | 4.5 |
| QB Dev History | 20/100 | 20% | 4.0 |
| Draft Pressure (traded up) | 20/100 | 8% | 1.6 |
| Ownership | 45/100 | 7% | 3.2 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 28.2 | ||
What Happened
The Jets threw Darnold into a burning building with no weapons, no line, and no coaching. He saw "ghosts" (his words) behind an offensive line that got him killed. Three years later, he was traded for pennies. Another young QB destroyed by the Jets.
Josh Rosen → Arizona Cardinals (#10)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Steve Wilks) | 20/100 | 12% | 2.4 |
| OC (Mike McCoy) | 15/100 | 18% | 2.7 |
| Offensive Line | 20/100 | 20% | 4.0 |
| Skill Weapons | 30/100 | 15% | 4.5 |
| QB Dev History | 25/100 | 20% | 5.0 |
| Draft Pressure | 40/100 | 8% | 3.2 |
| Ownership | 35/100 | 7% | 2.5 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 22.4 | ||
What Happened
Arizona had the worst offensive line in football and fired their coach after one year. Rosen was sacked 45 times in 13 games. Then they drafted Kyler Murray and traded Rosen for a 2nd rounder. He's now out of the NFL entirely."9 mistakes were made before me" didn't age well.
The QB Class Comparison
Rosen
Out of NFL
Darnold
Backup
Baker
Journeyman
Allen
MVP candidate
Lamar
MVP winner
Point swing between Rosen and Lamar based on context
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Lamar #1, Allen #2, everyone else way lower"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"Lamar to Arizona = career backup. Rosen to Baltimore = at least competent."
The "project" and the "athlete" became superstars. The "NFL-ready" and "pro-style" QBs are out of football. Talent evaluation without context is worthless.