2017 NFL Draft
The Mahomes Draft — Chicago's Biggest Miss
What Happened vs What Should've Happened
Compare the original draft order with career-based re-rankings
The Scenario
The 2017 draft had three first-round QBs: Mitchell Trubisky (#2 to Chicago), Patrick Mahomes (#10 to Kansas City), and Deshaun Watson (#12 to Houston).
Chicago traded up to #2 specifically for Trubisky. They could have had Mahomes. Why didn't they — and would Mahomes have become Mahomes in Chicago?
Player Profile: Patrick Mahomes
| Position | QB |
| College | Texas Tech |
| Actual Pick | #10 Overall (Kansas City Chiefs) |
| Pro Readiness | Medium (Air Raid concerns) |
| Career Accolades | 3× Champion, 2× MVP, Super Bowl MVP |
Scouting Notes (2017)
- • Elite arm talent — could make any throw
- • Air Raid system = NFL translation questions
- • "Gunslinger" mentality — turnover concerns
- • Athletic, could extend plays
- • Raw, needed development time
Chicago Bears (Pick #2)
Team Context (2017)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (John Fox) | 35/100 | 12% | 4.2 |
| OC (Dowell Loggains) | 25/100 | 18% | 4.5 |
| Offensive Line | 40/100 | 20% | 8.0 |
| Skill Weapons | 30/100 | 15% | 4.5 |
| QB Dev History | 25/100 | 20% | 5.0 |
| Draft Pressure (#2) | 30/100 | 8% | 2.4 |
| Ownership (McCaskey) | 45/100 | 7% | 3.2 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 32.15 | ||
The Problem
John Fox was a lame duck. Loggains was a bad OC. No weapons. Terrible O-line.
Projection
Mahomes gets killed behind that line, develops bad habits, labeled a bust by Year 3
The Brutal Truth
Chicago's 2017 situation was a QB graveyard. They had no plan to develop a raw prospect. Fox was fired after the season. The offense was prehistoric. Mahomes' gunslinger instincts would've become turnover problems without proper coaching to channel them.
Kansas City Chiefs (Pick #10)
Team Context (2017)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Andy Reid) | 98/100 | 12% | 11.8 |
| OC (Matt Nagy) | 80/100 | 18% | 14.4 |
| Offensive Line | 75/100 | 20% | 15.0 |
| Skill Weapons (Hill, Kelce) | 95/100 | 15% | 14.3 |
| QB Dev History (Alex Smith) | 90/100 | 20% | 18.0 |
| Draft Pressure (#10) | 70/100 | 8% | 5.6 |
| Ownership (Hunt) | 85/100 | 7% | 6.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 87.05 | ||
The Perfect Storm
Andy Reid — the QB whisperer. Year behind Alex Smith to learn. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce waiting.
What Happened
MVP Year 2. Super Bowl Year 3. Dynasty ongoing. GOAT trajectory.
Why This Was Perfect
Andy Reid has developed McNabb, Vick (revival), Alex Smith, and now Mahomes. He knew how to channel the gunslinger mentality. Sitting behind Smith taught Mahomes NFL preparation. Hill and Kelce meant his arm talent had elite targets. This was the optimal development environment in the entire NFL.
Other 2017 Suitors — Mahomes Fit Scores
Cleveland (#1)
28/1000-16 roster, Hue Jackson
Houston (#12)
58/100O'Brien, Hopkins — decent
Arizona (#13)
52/100Bruce Arians system fit
Why Did Chicago Pick Trubisky?
The Bears valued "pro-style" experience and perceived lower risk. Trubisky had played in a more traditional offense at UNC. Mahomes' Air Raid background scared them.
The Irony
Chicago hired Matt Nagy (from KC) after 2017 to run a version of Reid's offense... the exact system Mahomes was thriving in. They wanted the system but drafted the wrong QB for it. Then they ruined Trubisky in it anyway.
The Comparison
Point swing between Chicago and Kansas City
Chicago
"Probable bust"
Kansas City
"Dynasty QB"
The Verdict
Mahomes to Chicago would have been a disaster. Not because of his talent — because of the environment. Bad coaching, no weapons, a leaky O-line, and a franchise with no plan to develop a raw QB.
Kansas City wasn't just a good fit — it was the best possible fit in the league. Andy Reid, a year of development, and elite weapons turned arm talent into the best QB in football.
The Chiefs didn't just draft Mahomes. They engineered a superstar.