What Happened vs What Should've Happened
Compare the original draft order with career-based re-rankings
The Scenario
Tom Brady was drafted 199th overall by the New England Patriots. The rest is history. But what if he'd gone to a different team? Traditional re-drafts say "Brady should've gone #1." Our contextual analysis disagrees.
Player Profile: Tom Brady
| Position | QB |
| College | Michigan |
| Actual Pick | #199 (Round 6) |
| Pro Readiness | Medium |
| Career AV | 348 (1st all-time among QBs) |
Scouting Notes
- • Below average physical tools for NFL QB
- • Elite processing and decision-making
- • Exceptional work ethic and competitiveness
- • Not a Day 1 starter — needed development time
- • Split time at Michigan, questions about ceiling
Cleveland Browns (Pick #1)
Team Context (2000)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Chris Palmer) | 25/100 | 12% | 3.0 |
| Offensive Coordinator | 30/100 | 18% | 5.4 |
| Offensive Line | 20/100 | 20% | 4.0 |
| Skill Weapons | 25/100 | 15% | 3.8 |
| QB Dev History | 15/100 | 20% | 3.0 |
| Draft Pressure (#1) | 30/100 | 8% | 2.4 |
| Ownership | 40/100 | 7% | 2.8 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 27.35 | ||
Projected Ceiling
Serviceable starter who requests trade after 3 years
Projected Floor
Career backup, labeled a bust by media
Why It Fails
The #1 pick pressure combined with Cleveland's terrible supporting cast creates an impossible development environment. Brady needed time behind Bledsoe, quality coaching, and at least adequate protection. Cleveland offered none of these.
New England Patriots (Pick #199)
Team Context (2000)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Bill Belichick) | 85/100 | 12% | 10.2 |
| OC (Charlie Weis) | 75/100 | 18% | 13.5 |
| Offensive Line | 65/100 | 20% | 13.0 |
| Skill Weapons | 50/100 | 15% | 7.5 |
| QB Dev History | 70/100 | 20% | 14.0 |
| Draft Pressure (#199) | 95/100 | 8% | 7.6 |
| Ownership (Kraft) | 90/100 | 7% | 6.3 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 72.1 | ||
Projected Ceiling
Multiple Pro Bowls if he gets an opportunity
Projected Floor
Quality backup with trade value
Why It Worked
Zero expectations (6th round), time to develop behind Bledsoe, elite coaching system, patient ownership, and solid protection created the perfect incubation environment. When the opportunity came (Bledsoe injury), Brady was ready.
The Comparison
Point swing based on context alone
Browns
"Projected bust"
Patriots
"Hall of Fame"
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Browns should've taken Brady #1"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"Brady at #1 to Cleveland = career backup"
Same player. Same talent. Different situation = different outcome.This is why context matters.