2016 NFL Draft
Goff vs. Wentz: The Trade That Flipped Their Careers
What Happened vs What Should've Happened
Compare the original draft order with career-based re-rankings
The Scenario
LA traded up to #1 for Jared Goff. Philly traded up to #2 for Carson Wentz. Both were considered franchise saviors. Then LA traded Goff to Detroit for Stafford and won a Super Bowl. Philly traded Wentz to Indy after he fell apart. The lesson: context changes, and so do careers.
Jared Goff
Pick #1 • Rams
Carson Wentz
Pick #2 • Eagles
Dak Prescott
Pick #135 • Cowboys
Jared Goff → LA Rams (with Sean McVay)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Sean McVay) | 95/100 | 15% | 14.3 |
| Offensive System | 90/100 | 20% | 18.0 |
| Offensive Line | 85/100 | 15% | 12.8 |
| Skill Weapons (Gurley, Kupp) | 85/100 | 15% | 12.8 |
| Pre-Snap Help | 90/100 | 10% | 9.0 |
| Ceiling Concerns | 50/100 | 15% | 7.5 |
| Big Game Performance | 40/100 | 10% | 4.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 71.8 | ||
What Happened
McVay made Goff look like a franchise QB. Super Bowl appearance, 2 Pro Bowls, 4,600+ yards. But the limitations showed in big moments — SB vs. Patriots (3 points), playoff struggles. McVay eventually decided Stafford's ceiling was higher. Goff was a product of the system, not the driver of it.
Jared Goff → Detroit Lions (Trade)
The Second Act
Written off as a salary dump, Goff found new life in Detroit. Dan Campbell's culture, Ben Johnson's offense, and zero expectations. Led Detroit to their best season in 30+ years.Not elite, but effective — and maybe that's who Goff always was.
Carson Wentz → Philadelphia Eagles (#2)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Doug Pederson) | 75/100 | 15% | 11.3 |
| Offensive System | 70/100 | 18% | 12.6 |
| Offensive Line | 80/100 | 15% | 12.0 |
| Injury History | 30/100 | 20% | 6.0 |
| Mental/Confidence | 35/100 | 15% | 5.3 |
| Market Pressure | 40/100 | 10% | 4.0 |
| Organization Trust | 45/100 | 7% | 3.2 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 51.6 | ||
What Happened
Wentz was an MVP favorite in 2017 before tearing his ACL. Foles won the Super Bowl. Wentz was never the same — injuries, confidence issues, trying to do too much. Philly traded him, Indy gave up on him, Washington cut him.The ACL didn't just tear his knee — it tore his career trajectory.
Dak Prescott → Dallas Cowboys (#135)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Jason Garrett → McCarthy) | 55/100 | 12% | 6.6 |
| Offensive Line | 95/100 | 20% | 19.0 |
| Skill Weapons (Zeke, CeeDee) | 85/100 | 18% | 15.3 |
| Market (Dallas) | 60/100 | 10% | 6.0 |
| No Pressure (#135) | 95/100 | 15% | 14.3 |
| Playoff Results | 35/100 | 15% | 5.3 |
| Contract Leverage | 70/100 | 10% | 7.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 73.5 | ||
What Happened
Dak stepped in for injured Romo and never looked back. Elite O-line, no pressure as a 4th rounder, weapons everywhere. ROY, 3x Pro Bowl, $160M contract. But zero playoff wins since 2018 has Dallas questioning everything. Great regular season QB. January question mark.
The QB Class Through Time
Dak (DAL)
4th round steal
Goff (McVay)
System QB
Goff (DET)
Resurrected
Wentz (PHI)
Injuries derailed
Point swing: 4th round Dak vs. #2 overall Wentz
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Dak #1, then maybe Goff or Wentz"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"Dak's success required Dallas's O-line. Goff needed McVay. Wentz needed to stay healthy. None are elite — all are products of their situations."
The top 2 picks became cautionary tales. The 4th rounder became the best of the class.Draft capital means nothing if the context doesn't match the player.