2012 NFL Draft
The Luck vs. RG3 Debate (And The Guy Nobody Noticed)
What Happened vs What Should've Happened
Compare the original draft order with career-based re-rankings
The Scenario
Andrew Luck was "the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning." RG3 won the Heisman and Washington traded a king's ransom to get him. Meanwhile, Russell Wilson went 75th overall because he was "too short." Ten years later, only one had a Hall of Fame career.
Andrew Luck
Pick #1 • Colts
Robert Griffin III
Pick #2 • Commanders
Russell Wilson
Pick #75 • Seahawks
Andrew Luck → Indianapolis Colts (#1)
Team Context (2012)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Chuck Pagano) | 55/100 | 12% | 6.6 |
| OC (Bruce Arians) | 70/100 | 18% | 12.6 |
| Offensive Line | 35/100 | 20% | 7.0 |
| Skill Weapons | 55/100 | 15% | 8.3 |
| QB Dev History | 85/100 | 20% | 17.0 |
| Draft Pressure (#1) | 30/100 | 8% | 2.4 |
| Ownership (Irsay) | 60/100 | 7% | 4.2 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 58.3 | ||
What Happened
Luck was brilliant but got destroyed behind terrible offensive lines. The Colts never built around him properly. After absorbing 174 sacks in 6 seasons and multiple injuries, he retired at 29. Elite talent, ruined by context.
RG3 → Washington Commanders (#2)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Mike Shanahan) | 50/100 | 12% | 6.0 |
| OC (Kyle Shanahan) | 65/100 | 18% | 11.7 |
| Offensive Line | 30/100 | 20% | 6.0 |
| Skill Weapons | 40/100 | 15% | 6.0 |
| QB Dev History | 15/100 | 20% | 3.0 |
| Draft Pressure (traded up) | 15/100 | 8% | 1.2 |
| Ownership (Snyder) | 10/100 | 7% | 0.7 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 31.4 | ||
What Happened
Washington gave up three first-round picks for RG3, creating impossible expectations. Shanahan rushed him back from injury in the playoffs (the infamous knee game). Dan Snyder's dysfunction and coaching instability finished him off. Talent meets toxic organization.
Russell Wilson → Seattle Seahawks (#75)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Pete Carroll) | 90/100 | 12% | 10.8 |
| OC (Darrell Bevell) | 70/100 | 18% | 12.6 |
| Offensive Line | 60/100 | 20% | 12.0 |
| Skill Weapons (Lynch) | 85/100 | 15% | 12.8 |
| Defense (LOB) | 95/100 | 10% | 9.5 |
| Draft Pressure (#75) | 95/100 | 8% | 7.6 |
| Ownership (Allen) | 80/100 | 7% | 5.6 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 82.1 | ||
What Happened
Zero pressure (3rd round), elite defense to lean on, Marshawn Lynch taking the load, Pete Carroll's player-friendly culture, and the freedom to develop. Wilson won a Super Bowl in year 2 and made 9 Pro Bowls. Perfect context creates perfect outcomes.
The Context Gap
Luck
Bad O-line, retired early
RG3
Toxic org, career over
Wilson
Perfect situation, SB champ
Point swing between RG3 and Wilson based on context
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Wilson should've gone #1, then Luck, then RG3"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"Wilson to Washington = another RG3. Luck to Seattle = Hall of Famer."
The "generational prospect" retired at 29. The "too short" 3rd rounder won a Super Bowl.Draft capital and measurables mean nothing without the right context.