2014 NFL Draft
Bortles, Manziel, and the Aaron Donald Masterclass
What Happened vs What Should've Happened
Compare the original draft order with career-based re-rankings
The Scenario
Everyone wanted a QB. Jacksonville took Blake Bortles #3. Cleveland took Johnny Manziel #22. Meanwhile, the Rams quietly took Aaron Donald at #13 and the Seahawks got their next GOAT CB in Richard Sherman's backyard. The QBs failed. The defensive players became legends.
Blake Bortles
#3 • Jaguars
Aaron Donald
#13 • Rams
Odell Beckham Jr
#12 • Giants
Johnny Manziel
#22 • Browns
Aaron Donald → St. Louis/LA Rams (#13)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defensive System | 85/100 | 18% | 15.3 |
| Scheme Versatility | 95/100 | 15% | 14.3 |
| Wade Phillips Arrival (2017) | 98/100 | 15% | 14.7 |
| Surrounding D-Line Talent | 80/100 | 12% | 9.6 |
| GM Patience (Snead) | 90/100 | 15% | 13.5 |
| Franchise Commitment | 95/100 | 15% | 14.3 |
| Individual Dominance | 100/100 | 10% | 10.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 91.5 | ||
What Happened
Donald transcended his situation. 3x DPOY, 8x All-Pro, probably the most dominant interior defender in NFL history. He made the Rams' defense elite regardless of who was coaching.When Wade Phillips arrived, Donald went from great to unstoppable. Context can amplify generational talent — but generational talent will shine anywhere.
Blake Bortles → Jacksonville Jaguars (#3)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Gus Bradley) | 35/100 | 15% | 5.3 |
| OC (Greg Olson → Hackett) | 40/100 | 18% | 7.2 |
| Offensive Line | 30/100 | 15% | 4.5 |
| Skill Weapons (early years) | 35/100 | 15% | 5.3 |
| GM (Dave Caldwell) | 35/100 | 12% | 4.2 |
| Ownership Patience | 40/100 | 15% | 6.0 |
| Market (small, forgiving) | 55/100 | 10% | 5.5 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 37.2 | ||
What Happened
Bortles had one magical playoff run in 2017 (thanks to an elite defense), but his mechanics and decision-making never developed. Jacksonville's coaching carousel didn't help, but Bortles also never showed the processing speed of a franchise QB. Sometimes the tape is right. He was a reach at #3, and context couldn't save limited talent.
Johnny Manziel → Cleveland Browns (#22)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Pettine → Manziel handling) | 25/100 | 15% | 3.8 |
| Franchise Stability | 15/100 | 18% | 2.7 |
| Off-Field Support Systems | 10/100 | 20% | 2.0 |
| Media Circus Management | 10/100 | 15% | 1.5 |
| Surrounding Talent | 30/100 | 12% | 3.6 |
| Ownership (Haslam) | 15/100 | 10% | 1.5 |
| City/Culture Fit | 20/100 | 10% | 2.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 17.3 | ||
What Happened
Cleveland was the worst possible landing spot for a player who needed structure. The Browns' dysfunction enabled Johnny's worst tendencies. No accountability, no stability, no help.Could a better organization have saved him? Maybe. But Cleveland's chaos accelerated the spiral. Out of the NFL by 25.
Johnny Manziel → New England Patriots
The Alternate Timeline
Belichick's structure, Brady's mentorship, the Patriot Way's intolerance for nonsense. Could it have worked? The organization would have demanded accountability. Johnny would've had to compete for every snap. It's the only environment that might have saved his career — or cut him immediately. Either way, a better outcome than Cleveland.
Context vs. Talent
Donald (LAR)
3x DPOY
Manziel (NE)
Hypothetical
Bortles (JAX)
1 playoff run
Manziel (CLE)
2 seasons
Hypothetical point swing: Manziel in NE vs. Manziel in CLE
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Donald #1, Khalil Mack #2, OBJ #3, QBs all drop to day 2+"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"Donald was transcendent enough to overcome any context. But 2014's QB class shows that bad situations don't just hurt prospects — they can end careers. Cleveland killed Manziel's NFL future."
The 2014 draft taught us two things: generational talents like Donald will dominate anywhere, and fragile talents like Manziel need the right environment to survive. Cleveland provided the opposite. Context can't fix everything — but it can definitely break it.