2007 NFL Draft
JaMarcus Russell and the Raiders Disaster
What Happened vs What Should've Happened
Compare the original draft order with career-based re-rankings
The Scenario
JaMarcus Russell went #1 overall to Oakland. He's widely considered the biggest bust in NFL history. Calvin Johnson went #2 and became "Megatron." Traditional re-drafts say "Calvin should've been #1." But was ANY quarterback succeeding in Oakland? Context reveals a system designed to fail.
Player Profile: JaMarcus Russell
| Position | QB |
| College | LSU |
| Actual Pick | #1 (Round 1) |
| Pro Readiness | Low |
| Career Stats | 18 TDs, 23 INTs, out of league by 2010 |
Scouting Notes
- • Cannon arm — could throw 60+ yards on a knee
- • 6'6", 265 lbs — ideal NFL prototype size
- • Work ethic concerns raised pre-draft
- • Needed structure and development
- • Raw processor, relied on physical gifts at LSU
Oakland Raiders (Pick #1)
Team Context (2007)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Lane Kiffin) | 15/100 | 12% | 1.8 |
| OC (Greg Knapp) | 25/100 | 18% | 4.5 |
| Offensive Line | 20/100 | 20% | 4.0 |
| Skill Weapons | 30/100 | 15% | 4.5 |
| QB Dev History | 5/100 | 20% | 1.0 |
| Owner (Al Davis) | 5/100 | 8% | 0.4 |
| Organizational Stability | 5/100 | 7% | 0.4 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 16.6 | ||
What Happened
Held out until Week 1, never developed, labeled lazy, out by 2010
Context Failures
Al Davis' meddling, constant coaching turnover, no development plan
The Oakland QB Graveyard (2003-2014)
Rich Gannon (injured), Kerry Collins, Marques Tuiasosopo, Andrew Walter, Aaron Brooks, Russell, JaMarcus Russell, Bruce Gradkowski, Jason Campbell, Carson Palmer (traded), Terrelle Pryor, Matt McGloin, Derek Carr. Zero successful QB development in 11 years.
Russell → Green Bay (Backup Plan)
The Alternate Timeline
Hypothetically, if Russell had fallen to a team like Green Bay (who drafted Rodgers in '05 and knew how to develop QBs), he sits behind Favre, learns the McCarthy system, has structure and accountability. Projected: journeyman starter, 8-10 year career, 40/60 TD-INT ratio. Not a star, but not a historic bust either.
Player Profile: Calvin Johnson
| Position | WR |
| College | Georgia Tech |
| Actual Pick | #2 (Round 1) |
| Pro Readiness | Elite |
| Career Stats | 11,619 yds, 83 TDs, HOF 2021 |
Why He Succeeded
- • Context-proof talent — would dominate anywhere
- • WR has lower development requirements than QB
- • Elite physical gifts + elite work ethic
- • Stafford arrival (2009) unlocked full potential
- • Still retired early due to losing culture
The Comparison
Points Russell loses from Oakland context vs neutral environment
Russell → Oakland
"Historic bust"
Russell → Neutral
"Journeyman"
Megatron (Any Team)
"Context-proof"
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Megatron #1 — Russell was a bum"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"Oakland was a QB death sentence. Russell's bust label is 60% context, 40% player. Calvin succeeds anywhere — he was the correct pick regardless."
The lesson: some organizations shouldn't draft QBs until they fix their infrastructure.Oakland under Al Davis was a quarterback-development black hole. Russell never had a chance.