2006 NFL Draft
Reggie Bush, Mario Williams, and the Hype Machine
What Happened vs What Should've Happened
Compare the original draft order with career-based re-rankings
The Scenario
Reggie Bush was the most hyped prospect since Bo Jackson. Houston shocked the world by taking Mario Williams #1 instead. Bush went #2 to New Orleans and never became a superstar. Traditional re-drafts call this a Houston miss. Contextual analysis says Houston made the smarter calculation all along.
Player Profile: Reggie Bush
| Position | RB |
| College | USC |
| Actual Pick | #2 (Round 1) |
| Pro Readiness | Medium |
| Career Stats | 5,490 rush yds, 58 TDs (11 seasons) |
Scouting Notes
- • Electric open-field runner, elite acceleration
- • Undersized for between-the-tackles work
- • Better as weapon than workhorse
- • Needed creative play-calling to maximize
- • Heisman hype exceeded realistic NFL role
New Orleans Saints (Pick #2)
Team Context (2006)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Sean Payton) | 85/100 | 12% | 10.2 |
| Offensive Creativity | 90/100 | 18% | 16.2 |
| Offensive Line | 45/100 | 20% | 9.0 |
| QB (Drew Brees) | 90/100 | 15% | 13.5 |
| Role Clarity | 30/100 | 20% | 6.0 |
| Market Expectations | 20/100 | 8% | 1.6 |
| Positional Value (#2) | 40/100 | 7% | 2.8 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 55.4 | ||
What Happened
Never became featured back, Super Bowl role player, traded after 5 years
Context Issues
Heisman expectations for a player better suited to flex/gadget role
Player Profile: Mario Williams
| Position | DE |
| College | NC State |
| Actual Pick | #1 (Round 1) |
| Pro Readiness | High |
| Career Stats | 97.5 sacks, 4x Pro Bowl, 2x All-Pro |
Scouting Notes
- • 6'6", 295 lbs with elite speed
- • Rare combination of size and burst
- • Pro-ready technique
- • Position with longer career arc than RB
- • Less exciting but higher floor
Houston Texans (Pick #1)
Team Context (2006)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defensive Need | 90/100 | 20% | 18.0 |
| Scheme Fit (4-3 DE) | 85/100 | 18% | 15.3 |
| Positional Value | 80/100 | 15% | 12.0 |
| Career Longevity | 85/100 | 15% | 12.8 |
| Role Clarity | 90/100 | 12% | 10.8 |
| Media Pressure (vs Bush) | 40/100 | 12% | 4.8 |
| Franchise Building | 70/100 | 8% | 5.6 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 74.2 | ||
What Happened
53.5 sacks in Houston, franchise cornerstone, 4x Pro Bowl overall
Context Success
Clear role, scheme fit, position with 10+ year window
Bush to Houston
The Alternate Timeline
2006 Texans offense: David Carr under constant pressure, no Drew Brees to open space. Gary Kubiak's zone-blocking scheme needed a power back, not a scat back. Bush's skill set wasted behind a bad O-line. Projected: 3 frustrating seasons, traded to a creative offense, career parallels actual outcome but in different uniform.
The Comparison
Point advantage for Williams pick over Bush in Houston context
Williams → Texans
"Franchise cornerstone"
Bush → Texans
"Wrong system, wrong QB"
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Neither were elite — push"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"Houston made the analytically correct choice. Bush's ceiling was lower than the hype; Williams' floor was higher than the criticism."
The lesson: ignore the hype machine. Houston's front office saw what scouts couldn't admit — Bush was a gadget player being valued as a franchise back. Mario Williams was boring but correct.