2010 NFL Draft
Sam Bradford's Glass Body and the Gronkowski Steal
What Happened vs What Should've Happened
Compare the original draft order with career-based re-rankings
The Scenario
St. Louis took Sam Bradford #1 overall with the final mega-contract before the rookie wage scale. Ndamukong Suh went #2. Meanwhile, New England took some tight end named Rob Gronkowski at #42.Bradford got $78M guaranteed and never stayed healthy. Gronk became the greatest TE ever on a fourth-round salary.
Sam Bradford
#1 • Rams
Ndamukong Suh
#2 • Lions
Rob Gronkowski
#42 • Patriots
Tim Tebow
#25 • Broncos
Rob Gronkowski → New England Patriots (#42)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB (Tom Brady) | 100/100 | 25% | 25.0 |
| HC (Bill Belichick) | 100/100 | 20% | 20.0 |
| Offensive System (TE-centric) | 95/100 | 15% | 14.3 |
| Two-TE Sets (Hernandez pairing) | 90/100 | 10% | 9.0 |
| Organizational Excellence | 98/100 | 15% | 14.7 |
| Medical/Recovery Resources | 90/100 | 10% | 9.0 |
| Winning Culture | 98/100 | 5% | 4.9 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 96.5 | ||
What Happened
Gronk fell to the second round due to back surgery concerns. New England bet on the talent, paired him with Brady, and unleashed the most dominant tight end in NFL history. 5x All-Pro, 4 Super Bowls, changed how defenses game-plan. Brady made Gronk unstoppable. Belichick's system maximized his skillset. The Patriots' medical staff managed his body. Perfect marriage of talent and context.
Ndamukong Suh → Detroit Lions (#2)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Defensive System | 65/100 | 18% | 11.7 |
| Supporting D-Line Talent | 55/100 | 15% | 8.3 |
| Individual Dominance | 95/100 | 20% | 19.0 |
| Franchise Competence | 50/100 | 15% | 7.5 |
| Winning Environment | 40/100 | 12% | 4.8 |
| Contract Handled | 85/100 | 10% | 8.5 |
| Career Arc Management | 80/100 | 10% | 8.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 67.2 | ||
What Happened
Suh was immediately dominant — 5x All-Pro, one of the best DTs of his era. But Detroit couldn't build a winner around him. He left for Miami, then won a ring with Tampa Bay at 34.Suh's talent transcended his situation, but imagine him with a functional franchise from day one. Could have been even more decorated.
Sam Bradford → St. Louis Rams (#1)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Steve Spagnuolo) | 35/100 | 15% | 5.3 |
| Offensive Line | 25/100 | 20% | 5.0 |
| Skill Weapons | 30/100 | 15% | 4.5 |
| Contract Pressure ($78M guaranteed) | 20/100 | 15% | 3.0 |
| Franchise Stability | 30/100 | 15% | 4.5 |
| Injury History Management | 35/100 | 10% | 3.5 |
| Development Environment | 40/100 | 10% | 4.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 30.5 | ||
What Happened
Bradford got $78M guaranteed — the last massive rookie deal before the CBA changed. Then St. Louis gave him nothing: bad line, no weapons, coaching carousel. His body broke down. He bounced to Philly, Minnesota, Arizona — always hurt, never fulfilled potential.The Rams' dysfunction destroyed what could have been. Those knees might have held up with better protection.
Sam Bradford → New England Patriots
The Alternate Timeline
Brady's backup, learning from the GOAT, Belichick's system, superior protection, world-class medical staff managing those knees. Bradford had the arm talent and accuracy. In New England, he might have developed into a competent starter who could've taken over post-Brady. Instead, St. Louis broke him.
Pick Value vs. Career Value
Gronk (NE #42)
GOAT TE
Suh (DET #2)
5x All-Pro
Bradford (NE)
Hypothetical
Bradford (STL #1)
$78M, broken
Hypothetical point swing: Bradford in New England vs. St. Louis
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Gronkowski #1, Suh #2, Russell Okung #3, Earl Thomas #4, Bradford drops to late first"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"Gronk's greatness was amplified by Brady and Belichick. Bradford's failure was accelerated by St. Louis's dysfunction. The Patriots' context made one a legend; the Rams' context made one a cautionary tale."
The 2010 draft gave us the ultimate contrast: a second-rounder became the greatest at his position thanks to the perfect situation. A #1 pick became a journeyman because the worst situation destroyed his body. Draft capital means nothing without context.