2005 NFL Draft
The Slide That Created a Legend
What Happened vs What Should've Happened
Compare the original draft order with career-based re-rankings
The Scenario
Alex Smith went #1 overall to the 49ers. Aaron Rodgers, expected to go in the top 5, sat in the green room for hours as cameras captured his humiliation. He fell to #24.Twenty years later, one is a journeyman. The other might be the most talented QB ever.
Alex Smith
Pick #1 • 49ers
17-year career, solid starter
Aaron Rodgers
Pick #24 • Packers
Top 5 QB of all time
Aaron Rodgers → Green Bay Packers (#24)
Team Context (2005)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Mike McCarthy) | 80/100 | 12% | 9.6 |
| Mentor (Brett Favre) | 95/100 | 18% | 17.1 |
| Offensive Line | 75/100 | 20% | 15.0 |
| Skill Weapons | 80/100 | 15% | 12.0 |
| QB Dev History | 95/100 | 20% | 19.0 |
| Draft Pressure (#24) | 95/100 | 8% | 7.6 |
| Franchise Legacy | 95/100 | 7% | 6.7 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 91.2 | ||
What Happened
Rodgers sat behind Favre for 3 years, learning, refining, building a chip on his shoulder. When he finally took over, he was ready — and angry. The result: 4 MVPs, a Super Bowl, the most efficient passer in NFL history, and two decades of dominance.The humiliation of draft night fueled a Hall of Fame career.
Alex Smith → San Francisco 49ers (#1)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Mike Nolan) | 30/100 | 12% | 3.6 |
| OC (carousel) | 20/100 | 18% | 3.6 |
| Offensive Line | 35/100 | 20% | 7.0 |
| Skill Weapons | 30/100 | 15% | 4.5 |
| Coaching Stability | 15/100 | 20% | 3.0 |
| Draft Pressure (#1) | 30/100 | 8% | 2.4 |
| Ownership | 40/100 | 7% | 2.8 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 38.2 | ||
What Happened
Smith had 7 offensive coordinators in 7 years with the 49ers. Seven. No young QB survives that. He was nearly out of football until Harbaugh arrived and rebuilt him. Even then, he lost his job to Kaepernick. Smith became a solid starter elsewhere, but those early years were stolen from him.Imagine Smith with Packers stability.
Aaron Rodgers → San Francisco 49ers (#1)
The Alternate Timeline
Rodgers was actually a 49ers fan growing up in Northern California. They could've drafted their hometown hero. Instead, they passed. If Rodgers goes to SF at #1, he gets the same OC carousel, the same dysfunction, the same 35+ sacks per year.Does the talent survive? Maybe. But 4 MVPs? A Super Bowl? No chance.
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Mike Nolan) | 30/100 | 12% | 3.6 |
| OC Stability | 20/100 | 18% | 3.6 |
| Protection | 35/100 | 20% | 7.0 |
| Weapons | 30/100 | 15% | 4.5 |
| Development | 25/100 | 20% | 5.0 |
| Draft Pressure (#1) | 30/100 | 8% | 2.4 |
| No Mentor | 40/100 | 7% | 2.8 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 42.1 | ||
Alex Smith → Green Bay Packers (#24)
The Alternate Timeline
Smith with 3 years behind Favre, one offensive system, stability, and weapons? He'd never be Rodgers (the ceiling is different), but he'd be a perennial Pro Bowler, maybe a Super Bowl winner. His game manager efficiency + Green Bay's system = a great career, not a redemption story.
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (McCarthy) | 80/100 | 12% | 9.6 |
| Mentor (Favre) | 90/100 | 18% | 16.2 |
| Protection | 75/100 | 20% | 15.0 |
| Weapons | 80/100 | 15% | 12.0 |
| Development Time | 90/100 | 20% | 18.0 |
| No Pressure (#24) | 90/100 | 8% | 7.2 |
| Stability | 95/100 | 7% | 6.7 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 73.8 | ||
The Context Swap
Rodgers (GB)
4x MVP
Smith (SF)
Nearly out of league
Rodgers (SF)
Hypothetical: good
Smith (GB)
Hypothetical: great
Point swing for Rodgers: Packers vs. 49ers
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Rodgers #1, Smith drops out of first round"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"Rodgers at #1 to SF = solid starter, not MVP. Smith to GB = perennial Pro Bowler."
The draft slide that humiliated Rodgers was the best thing that ever happened to him.Sitting behind Favre, learning in a stable system, with a chip on his shoulder — that's how you build a legend. Going #1 to dysfunction is how you build Alex Smith.