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NFLApril 24, 2004

2004 NFL Draft

The Trade That Defined Three Franchises

What Happened vs What Should've Happened

Compare the original draft order with career-based re-rankings

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The Scenario

Eli Manning refused to play for San Diego. The Chargers drafted him anyway at #1, then traded him to the Giants for Philip Rivers (#4) and picks. Ben Roethlisberger went #11.All three became Super Bowl winners — but context determined whose legacy shines brightest.

Analysis based on our NFL Methodology — weighing team environment, position development history, and situational factors.
QB

Eli Manning

Pick #1 → Giants

2x SB MVP
QB

Philip Rivers

Pick #4 → Chargers

8x Pro Bowl, 0 SB
QB

Ben Roethlisberger

Pick #11 • Steelers

2x SB Champ
THE FORCED TRADE

Eli Manning → New York Giants

76/100
FactorRatingWeightContribution
HC (Tom Coughlin)80/10012%9.6
OC (Kevin Gilbride)70/10018%12.6
Offensive Line75/10020%15.0
Defense85/10015%12.8
Market (NYC)60/10010%6.0
Ownership (Mara)85/10015%12.8
Pressure (forced trade)50/10010%5.0
TOTAL FIT SCORE75.5

What Happened

Eli was never the best QB in any given year. But twice he got hot in the playoffs with elite defenses. Two Super Bowl wins over the Patriots — including the perfect season upset. The Giants provided stability, coaching, and crucially: defense when it mattered.Hall of Fame debate forever, but 2 rings is 2 rings.

THE UNLUCKY ONE

Philip Rivers → San Diego Chargers

62/100
FactorRatingWeightContribution
HC (Marty → Norv)55/10012%6.6
Offensive Talent85/10018%15.3
Weapons (LT, Gates)90/10015%13.5
Front Office Moves40/10020%8.0
Playoff Luck25/10015%3.8
Market (SD → LA)50/10010%5.0
Ownership (Spanos)35/10010%3.5
TOTAL FIT SCORE62.1

What Happened

Rivers was arguably the most talented of the three — elite arm, brilliant competitor. But the Chargers were cursed: Marlon McCree's fumble, the 2007 ACL game, Nate Kaeding's misses. Great teams that never closed. Then Spanos moved to LA and gutted the roster.8 Pro Bowls. Zero Super Bowl appearances. The cruel side of context.

THE PERFECT FIT

Ben Roethlisberger → Pittsburgh Steelers (#11)

84/100
FactorRatingWeightContribution
HC (Bill Cowher)90/10012%10.8
OC (Ken Whisenhunt)80/10018%14.4
Offensive Line85/10020%17.0
Defense (Steel Curtain 2.0)95/10015%14.3
Running Game85/10010%8.5
Ownership (Rooney)95/10015%14.3
Pressure (#11)85/10010%8.5
TOTAL FIT SCORE83.8

What Happened

Ben walked into the NFL's best situation: elite defense, dominant O-line, power running game. He went 13-0 as a rookie starter. Won a Super Bowl in year 2 (barely played). The Steelers let him develop, protected him, and built around him for 18 years.2 rings, 3 Super Bowls, no drama with the franchise.

WHAT IF

Philip Rivers → New York Giants

81/100

The Alternate Timeline

Rivers with the Giants' defense in 2007 and 2011? Those playoff runs still happen — probably even more dominant. Rivers was more consistent than Eli in the regular season. With Coughlin's discipline and Mara's stability: 2+ rings and zero debate about Hall of Fame. The best QB in this class in the best situation.

The Situation Swap

🟢

Ben (PIT)

84

2 rings, perfect fit

🟢

Eli (NYG)

76

2 rings, right time

🟡

Rivers (SD)

62

0 rings, bad luck

🟢

Rivers (NYG)

81

Hypothetical: HOF lock

+19

Point swing for Rivers: Giants vs. Chargers

The Verdict

Traditional Re-Draft Says:

"Ben #1, Rivers #2, Eli #3"

Contextual Re-Draft Says:

"Rivers to NY = clear HOF. Eli to SD = no rings. Ben wins regardless — Pittsburgh was that good."

Eli's trade demand worked. Rivers got screwed by context. Ben got the best situation and made the most of it. Legacy isn't just talent — it's where you land.