2001 NFL Draft
LaDainian Tomlinson and the Vick Calculation
What Happened vs What Should've Happened
Compare the original draft order with career-based re-rankings
The Scenario
Michael Vick went #1 overall as the most electric prospect ever seen. LaDainian Tomlinson went #5 to San Diego and became a Hall of Famer with one MVP. Traditional re-drafts debate who was "better." Contextual analysis asks: what if they swapped teams? The answers are uncomfortable.
Player Profile: Michael Vick
| Position | QB |
| College | Virginia Tech |
| Actual Pick | #1 (Round 1) |
| Pro Readiness | Medium |
| Career Stats | 4x Pro Bowl, 22,464 pass yds, 6,109 rush yds |
Scouting Notes
- • Unprecedented athletic tools for QB position
- • Raw passer, needed development
- • Required offense built around his unique skills
- • High-maintenance scheme fit
- • Off-field concerns existed pre-draft (dismissed)
Atlanta Falcons (Pick #1)
Team Context (2001)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Dan Reeves) | 55/100 | 12% | 6.6 |
| Offensive Scheme Fit | 45/100 | 18% | 8.1 |
| Offensive Line | 50/100 | 20% | 10.0 |
| Skill Weapons | 55/100 | 15% | 8.3 |
| QB Dev History | 40/100 | 20% | 8.0 |
| Market Pressure (ATL) | 70/100 | 8% | 5.6 |
| Ownership Support | 65/100 | 7% | 4.6 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 52.1 | ||
What Happened
3 Pro Bowls, NFC Championship, exciting but inconsistent, career derailed by off-field issues
Context Issues
Reeves' system never fully utilized Vick's talents — square peg, round hole
Player Profile: LaDainian Tomlinson
| Position | RB |
| College | TCU |
| Actual Pick | #5 (Round 1) |
| Pro Readiness | Elite |
| Career Stats | 13,684 yds, 162 TDs, 2006 MVP, HOF |
Scouting Notes
- • Complete back: power, speed, receiving, blocking
- • Elite vision and patience
- • Professional demeanor, zero drama
- • Scheme-versatile — fits any offense
- • Workhorse capable of 400+ touches
San Diego Chargers (Pick #5)
Team Context (2001)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Mike Riley → Marty) | 70/100 | 12% | 8.4 |
| Offensive System | 80/100 | 18% | 14.4 |
| Offensive Line | 75/100 | 20% | 15.0 |
| QB Play (Brees incoming) | 75/100 | 15% | 11.3 |
| Usage Philosophy | 90/100 | 20% | 18.0 |
| Market Pressure (SD) | 80/100 | 8% | 6.4 |
| Ownership Patience | 70/100 | 7% | 4.9 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 78.3 | ||
What Happened
5x All-Pro, 2006 MVP (31 TDs), Hall of Fame, one of greatest RB seasons ever
Context Success
Marty Schottenheimer's system maximized his versatility; Brees opened up space
The Swap Scenario
Vick → Chargers
42/100Schottenheimer's ground-heavy system limits Vick's explosiveness. No designed QB runs, forced to be a pocket passer. Frustration builds. Likely traded by year 4.
LT → Falcons
68/100LT excels anywhere but Reeves' passing focus limits volume. Still a Pro Bowler but without the historic 2006 season. 11,000 career yards instead of 13,684.
The Comparison
Point swing for Vick between ideal and actual context
Vick (Scheme-Dependent)
42-58 range depending on fit
LT (Scheme-Proof)
68-78 range — elite anywhere
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"LT #1 — he was the better player"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"LT was scheme-proof; Vick was scheme-dependent. Neither was 'wrong' — they needed different things."
The real lesson: draft value isn't just about talent — it's about fit variance.A player with narrow fit requirements is riskier than a versatile one, even with equal ceiling.