2009 NFL Draft
Stafford, Sanchez, and the Hidden Gems: When Day 3 Outplays Day 1
What Happened vs What Should've Happened
Three views: 📋 Original Draft → 📊 Career AV → 🧠 Contextual Re-Draft
The Scenario
Detroit went all-in on Matthew Stafford at #1. St. Louis took tackle Jason Smith at #2. The Jets traded up to #5 for Mark Sanchez. The top-10 was filled with busts and disappointments. Meanwhile, Clay Matthews fell to #26, LeSean McCoy to round 2, and Julian Edelman to pick #232. Day 3 absolutely demolished Day 1.
Matthew Stafford
#1 • Lions
Jason Smith
#2 • Rams
Mark Sanchez
#5 • Jets
Clay Matthews
#26 • Packers
Matthew Stafford → Detroit Lions (#1)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Jim Schwartz - rookie) | 50/100 | 15% | 7.5 |
| OC (Scott Linehan) | 45/100 | 18% | 8.1 |
| Offensive Line | 35/100 | 20% | 7.0 |
| Skill Weapons (Calvin) | 85/100 | 15% | 12.8 |
| GM (Martin Mayhew) | 40/100 | 12% | 4.8 |
| Market (Detroit pressure) | 50/100 | 10% | 5.0 |
| Ownership (Ford family) | 45/100 | 10% | 4.5 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 51.6 | ||
What Happened
Detroit was a dumpster fire: 0-16 the year before, terrible line, no defense, dysfunctional organization. Stafford survived through sheer arm talent and Calvin Johnson. Took him 12 years to escape. Won a Super Bowl with the Rams the moment he got a real team. The situation was awful, but Stafford was legit. He just needed 12 years to prove it.
Jason Smith → St. Louis Rams (#2)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Steve Spagnuolo - rookie) | 40/100 | 15% | 6.0 |
| OL Coach | 30/100 | 18% | 5.4 |
| Talent Evaluation (reach) | 20/100 | 20% | 4.0 |
| Injury History | 15/100 | 17% | 2.6 |
| GM (Billy Devaney) | 25/100 | 12% | 3.0 |
| Franchise Instability | 20/100 | 10% | 2.0 |
| Ownership | 30/100 | 8% | 2.4 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 25.3 | ||
What Happened
Smith started 3 years, battled injuries, was out of football by 2012. Baylor tackle taken #2 overall when better talent sat on the board. Rams were rebuilding but had no clue how to evaluate linemen.#2 overall pick. 45 career games. Zero Pro Bowls. This is why teams now overthink OL drafts.
Mark Sanchez → New York Jets (#5)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Rex Ryan - defense-first) | 55/100 | 15% | 8.3 |
| OC (Brian Schottenheimer) | 40/100 | 18% | 7.2 |
| Elite Defense (carried him) | 85/100 | 15% | 12.8 |
| Experience (1 year starter) | 25/100 | 17% | 4.3 |
| Pressure (traded up) | 30/100 | 12% | 3.6 |
| Skill Weapons | 50/100 | 13% | 6.5 |
| Market (NYC) | 45/100 | 10% | 4.5 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 48.1 | ||
What Happened
Sanchez went to back-to-back AFC Championship Games his first two years. Then everyone realized the defense was doing all the work. One college season, drafted into a win-now team, collapsed when defenses learned to exploit him. The Jets' defense was Super Bowl caliber. Sanchez was not. But hey, 2 AFCCGs isn't nothing.
Clay Matthews → Green Bay Packers (#26)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Mike McCarthy - QB guru) | 85/100 | 15% | 12.8 |
| DC (Dom Capers - 3-4 scheme) | 90/100 | 18% | 16.2 |
| Scheme Fit (OLB in 3-4) | 95/100 | 20% | 19.0 |
| Pedigree (Football family) | 90/100 | 12% | 10.8 |
| Franchise Stability | 90/100 | 12% | 10.8 |
| Ownership (Packers model) | 95/100 | 10% | 9.5 |
| Development Culture | 90/100 | 13% | 11.7 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 90.3 | ||
What Happened
Matthews was a USC pass rusher who fell because of "tweener" concerns. Green Bay saw a perfect 3-4 OLB and grabbed him at #26. 6 Pro Bowls, Super Bowl XLV champ, 91.5 career sacks, franchise icon. 25 picks went before him. All 25 teams missed. The Packers' scouting department earned their paychecks for a decade on this pick alone.
LeSean McCoy → Philadelphia Eagles (#53, Round 2)
What Happened
Pittsburgh RB falls to #53. Philly grabs him. Becomes a 2x rushing champ, 6x Pro Bowler, over 11,000 rushing yards. One of the best pure runners of the 2010s. 53rd pick. Better than every RB taken in the first round. Better than Knowshon Moreno (#12), Donald Brown (#27), Beanie Wells (#31). Andy Reid's offense + Shady's vision = perfection.
Julian Edelman → New England Patriots (#232, Round 7)
What Happened
Kent State QB converted to slot WR. Last pick of Day 3. Becomes Brady's security blanket, 3x Super Bowl champ, Super Bowl LIII MVP. 231 picks went before him. Patriots turned a 7th-round flier into one of the greatest playoff performers in NFL history. Pick #232. 620 career catches. 3 rings. Mr. Irrelevant wishes.
Mike Wallace → Pittsburgh Steelers (#84, Round 3)
What Happened
Ole Miss speedster falls to round 3. Pittsburgh grabs him at #84. Averages 20+ yards per catch his first two years, forces defenses to respect the deep ball, helps Steelers reach Super Bowl XLV.Over 9,000 career yards, 50+ TDs. Better than Darrius Heyward-Bey (#7), Kenny Britt (#30), Percy Harvin (#22). Speed kills when you actually know how to use it.
The Tale of Two Draft Days
Stafford (DET)
Survived
Smith (STL)
Disaster
Matthews (GB)
HOF-level
Shady (PHI)
2x Rush Champ
Edelman (NE)
3 rings, SB MVP
When scouting departments actually do their jobs
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Clay Matthews #1, LeSean McCoy #2, Edelman top-10"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"The Packers turned #26 into a HOF linebacker. The Eagles turned #53 into a 2x rushing champ. The Patriots turned #232 into a Super Bowl MVP. Meanwhile, Jason Smith lasted 3 years."
This draft proved that Day 1 hype means nothing without talent evaluation. The teams that hit on Clay Matthews, LeSean McCoy, Mike Wallace, and Julian Edelman extracted more value from late picks than most franchises get from entire first rounds. Stafford eventually proved himself — 12 years later. Jason Smith never did. Context matters, but talent evaluation matters more.