1999 NFL Draft
Edgerrin James and the Art of the Landing Spot
What Happened vs What Should've Happened
Compare the original draft order with career-based re-rankings
The Scenario
Edgerrin James went #4 overall to Indianapolis, landing behind Peyton Manning's emerging offense. He won back-to-back rushing titles his first two years. Meanwhile, Ricky Williams went #5 to New Orleans after the Saints mortgaged their entire draft to get him. Williams became an enigma. Same talent tier, vastly different outcomes — context made the difference.
Player Profile: Edgerrin James
| Position | RB |
| College | Miami |
| Actual Pick | #4 (Round 1) |
| Pro Readiness | High |
| Career Stats | 12,246 yards, 80 TDs, HOF 2020 |
Scouting Notes
- • Elite vision and one-cut ability
- • Excellent receiving back (3,364 career rec yards)
- • Durable workhorse capable of 350+ touches
- • Quiet, professional demeanor — low drama
- • Pro-ready from Day 1
Indianapolis Colts (Pick #4)
Team Context (1999)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Jim Mora) | 70/100 | 10% | 7.0 |
| OC (Tom Moore) | 90/100 | 18% | 16.2 |
| Offensive Line | 85/100 | 22% | 18.7 |
| QB (Manning — Y2) | 95/100 | 20% | 19.0 |
| WR Threats (Harrison) | 90/100 | 15% | 13.5 |
| Usage Projection | 90/100 | 8% | 7.2 |
| Ownership Stability | 80/100 | 7% | 5.6 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 88.1 | ||
What Happened
1,553 yards rushing as rookie, back-to-back rushing titles, Hall of Fame
Context Success
Defenses couldn't load the box with Manning/Harrison — Edge feasted
Player Profile: Ricky Williams
| Position | RB |
| College | Texas |
| Actual Pick | #5 (Round 1) — via trade |
| Draft Capital | ENTIRE 1999 draft + picks |
| Career Stats | 10,009 yards, 66 TDs (interrupted) |
Scouting Notes
- • Heisman winner, 6,279 career college yards
- • Power/speed combo rare for era
- • Social anxiety disorder (undiagnosed at draft)
- • Introverted personality in spotlight position
- • Needed supportive, low-pressure environment
New Orleans Saints (Pick #5)
Team Context (1999)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Mike Ditka) | 35/100 | 10% | 3.5 |
| Offensive System | 25/100 | 18% | 4.5 |
| Offensive Line | 30/100 | 22% | 6.6 |
| QB Play | 25/100 | 20% | 5.0 |
| Supporting Cast | 20/100 | 15% | 3.0 |
| Franchise Pressure | 15/100 | 8% | 1.2 |
| Media Circus (Ditka) | 20/100 | 7% | 1.4 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 26.2 | ||
What Happened
8-man boxes every play, struggled with pressure, traded after 2 years
Context Failures
Wedding dress photo, entire draft traded, savior expectations crushed him
Ricky Williams → Colts
The Alternate Timeline
With Manning drawing coverage, Williams faces 6-7 man boxes instead of 8-9. Tom Moore's system uses him as a versatile weapon. Lower media pressure in Indianapolis. His social anxiety stays manageable without Ditka's circus. Projected: 2 Pro Bowls, 9,000+ career yards, no retirement drama. Same talent, radically different story.
The Comparison
Point swing between best and worst landing spots
Edge → Colts
"Hall of Famer"
Ricky → Saints
"What could've been"
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"James was the better player"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"James had a 60-point context advantage. Williams in Indy is a Pro Bowler. James in New Orleans struggles."
The Ditka trade wasn't just bad value — it created a pressure cooker that destroyed a talented player's prime. Context doesn't just matter. Sometimes it's everything.