The Scenario
Zion Williamson was the most hyped prospect since LeBron. Ja Morant went #2 with highlight reel potential. RJ Barrett went #3 to New York. Five years later: Ja has been to the playoffs every year. Zion has played 29 games in 2 seasons. The body doesn't lie.
Zion Williamson
Pick #1 • Pelicans
Ja Morant
Pick #2 • Grizzlies
RJ Barrett
Pick #3 • Knicks
Ja Morant → Memphis Grizzlies (#2)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Taylor Jenkins) | 85/100 | 15% | 12.8 |
| Culture (Grit n Grind 2.0) | 95/100 | 20% | 19.0 |
| Supporting Cast (JJJ, Bane) | 85/100 | 15% | 12.8 |
| Market (Small, focused) | 90/100 | 10% | 9.0 |
| Development | 90/100 | 15% | 13.5 |
| Off-Court Issues | 45/100 | 15% | 6.8 |
| Ownership | 80/100 | 10% | 8.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 81.5 | ||
What Happened
Memphis built around Ja perfectly — young core, playoff runs by year 2, All-NBA by year 3. The small market let him develop without LA/NY scrutiny. The off-court issues (guns, suspensions) are concerning, but on the court? Electric. Must-see. The best young point guard in basketball.
Zion Williamson → New Orleans Pelicans (#1)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Van Gundy → Green → Willie) | 45/100 | 12% | 5.4 |
| Medical Staff | 40/100 | 20% | 8.0 |
| Load Management | 35/100 | 20% | 7.0 |
| Supporting Cast | 70/100 | 15% | 10.5 |
| Market (New Orleans) | 55/100 | 8% | 4.4 |
| Body Composition | 30/100 | 15% | 4.5 |
| Organization Structure | 50/100 | 10% | 5.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 47.8 | ||
What Happened
When Zion plays, he's unstoppable — 27 PPG on 65% shooting. But he's played 29 games in 2 full seasons. Foot injuries, weight concerns, conditioning questions. New Orleans has tried everything. The talent is generational. The body may never cooperate. Context here is physical, not organizational.
Zion Williamson → Memphis Grizzlies (#2)
The Alternate Timeline
Would Memphis's culture fix Zion's body? Maybe better conditioning coaching. Maybe the Grit n Grind mentality forces accountability. But the foot issues are structural — 285 lbs of force on every landing. Context can help, but it can't change physics. Zion's ceiling was always going to depend on health, not environment.
RJ Barrett → New York Knicks (#3)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Fizdale → Thibs) | 60/100 | 15% | 9.0 |
| Development System | 50/100 | 20% | 10.0 |
| Market Pressure (NYC) | 30/100 | 15% | 4.5 |
| Supporting Cast | 55/100 | 15% | 8.3 |
| Role Clarity | 50/100 | 15% | 7.5 |
| Organization (Dolan) | 35/100 | 10% | 3.5 |
| Shooting Development | 45/100 | 10% | 4.5 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 51.8 | ||
What Happened
RJ became a solid player — 20 PPG, improved defense, hard worker. But the Knicks being the Knicks meant constant trade rumors, no clear path, and eventually getting shipped to Toronto.He's fine. But "fine" at #3 with his Duke pedigree feels like underperformance.
The Class Comparison
Ja (MEM)
All-NBA, playoff success
RJ (NYK)
Solid, not special
Zion (NOP)
Incredible (when healthy)
Point swing: Ja (#2) vs. Zion (#1) — availability is the best ability
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Ja #1, Zion #2 (if healthy caveat)"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"Zion's context problem isn't the team — it's his body. No organization can fix 285 lbs landing on stress-fractured feet. Ja's context advantage is being built like a point guard."
The most hyped prospect since LeBron has been available less than Ja Morant's backup.Sometimes context is organizational. Sometimes it's physical. With Zion, it's tragically the latter.