The Scenario
DeAndre Ayton went #1 to Phoenix. Sacramento took Marvin Bagley #2 over Luka Doncic. Atlanta drafted Doncic #3 and immediately traded him to Dallas for Trae Young (#5) and a future first.The debate rages: Who won the trade? Context says they both did — in different ways.
DeAndre Ayton
#1 • Suns
Marvin Bagley
#2 • Kings
Luka Doncic
#3 → Dallas
Trae Young
#5 → Atlanta
Luka Doncic → Dallas Mavericks (#3)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Rick Carlisle) | 85/100 | 15% | 12.8 |
| Offensive System | 90/100 | 20% | 18.0 |
| Ball Dominance Allowed | 95/100 | 15% | 14.3 |
| European Comfort | 90/100 | 10% | 9.0 |
| Franchise Patience | 85/100 | 15% | 12.8 |
| Market (Dallas) | 80/100 | 10% | 8.0 |
| Ownership (Cuban) | 85/100 | 15% | 12.8 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 87.8 | ||
What Happened
Dallas handed Luka the keys immediately. No "earn your minutes" — they built around him from day one. Dirk's mentorship, Cuban's investment, and a system that lets him play his game. 5x All-NBA by age 25. Finals appearance in year 6. He was ready from day one, and Dallas trusted that.
Trae Young → Atlanta Hawks (#5)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Lloyd Pierce → McMillan) | 70/100 | 15% | 10.5 |
| Pick-and-Roll System | 90/100 | 20% | 18.0 |
| Green Light | 95/100 | 15% | 14.3 |
| Rebuild Timeline | 85/100 | 15% | 12.8 |
| Supporting Cast Build | 75/100 | 15% | 11.3 |
| Market (ATL) | 70/100 | 10% | 7.0 |
| Low Pressure | 85/100 | 10% | 8.5 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 77.5 | ||
What Happened
Atlanta let Trae cook. The pick-and-roll maestro found his rhythm, made the 2021 ECF, and became the face of the franchise. The extra pick from Dallas became Cam Reddish (who became more picks). 3x All-Star, franchise cornerstone, and still ascending.
Marvin Bagley → Sacramento Kings (#2)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Dave Joerger) | 40/100 | 15% | 6.0 |
| Player Development | 25/100 | 20% | 5.0 |
| Positional Fit | 30/100 | 15% | 4.5 |
| Organization Stability | 20/100 | 15% | 3.0 |
| Draft Evaluation | 15/100 | 15% | 2.3 |
| Ownership (Vivek) | 25/100 | 10% | 2.5 |
| Culture | 30/100 | 10% | 3.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 27.8 | ||
What Happened
The Kings passed on Luka for a player who couldn't stay healthy and didn't fit the modern NBA. Bagley's father complained publicly. The organization was dysfunction personified. He's now on his 4th team. The worst #2 pick of the modern era, made worse by the context around it.
DeAndre Ayton → Phoenix Suns (#1)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Igor → Monty) | 65/100 | 15% | 9.8 |
| System Fit | 70/100 | 20% | 14.0 |
| Star Teammate (CP3) | 85/100 | 15% | 12.8 |
| Role Clarity | 50/100 | 15% | 7.5 |
| Organization Value | 45/100 | 15% | 6.8 |
| Contract Drama | 35/100 | 10% | 3.5 |
| Ownership (Sarver) | 30/100 | 10% | 3.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 58.2 | ||
What Happened
Ayton reached the Finals in year 3 — a success by any standard. But Phoenix never fully valued him, matched his offer sheet reluctantly, then traded him.Solid player, wrong era to be a traditional center going #1 over generational guard talent.
Luka Doncic → Sacramento Kings (#2)
The Alternate Timeline
The Kings were the worst-run franchise in basketball. Constant coaching changes, Vivek's interference, zero player development. Luka's talent would survive anywhere, but would he be a 5x All-NBA Finals player? Or would he demand a trade by year 3 like everyone else does in Sacramento?
The Trade Comparison
Luka (DAL)
Generational
Trae (ATL)
Franchise guy
Ayton (PHX)
Good, not great
Bagley (SAC)
Disaster
Point swing between Luka (Dallas) and Bagley (Sacramento)
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Luka #1, Trae #2, everyone else way lower"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"The Doncic-Young trade was win-win. Luka to Sacramento = maybe still great, maybe trade request. Bagley anywhere = probably bust."
Dallas bet on Euro pedigree and won big. Atlanta bet on the trade and got their guy plus assets. Sacramento bet on athleticism over IQ and lost catastrophically.Process matters as much as talent.