The Scenario
Philadelphia traded up to take Markelle Fultz #1. Lonzo Ball went #2 to the Lakers. Boston, having traded down, took Jayson Tatum #3. Seven years later, Tatum is an NBA champion and first-team All-NBA. Traditional re-drafts call this a Philly disaster. Contextual analysis reveals why the trade-up was doomed from the start.
Player Profile: Markelle Fultz
| Position | PG |
| College | Washington |
| Actual Pick | #1 (via trade) |
| Pro Readiness | High (pre-injury) |
| Career Status | Injuries, lost shot, journeyman |
Scouting Notes
- • Unanimous #1 pick consensus — rare
- • Elite scorer at Washington (23 PPG)
- • Smooth jumper that later vanished
- • Shoulder injury timeline murky
- • Needed careful medical management
Philadelphia 76ers (Pick #1)
Team Context (2017)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medical Staff Track Record | 15/100 | 22% | 3.3 |
| HC (Brett Brown) | 50/100 | 12% | 6.0 |
| Development Culture | 35/100 | 18% | 6.3 |
| Media Pressure | 20/100 | 15% | 3.0 |
| Front Office (Colangelo) | 25/100 | 15% | 3.8 |
| Fit with Simmons | 40/100 | 10% | 4.0 |
| Injury History (org) | 15/100 | 8% | 1.2 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 27.6 | ||
What Happened
Shot vanished, "yips" diagnosis, traded to Orlando, ACL tear, career derailed
Context Failures
Same medical staff that botched Embiid, Noel, Simmons injuries
The Process Medical Disaster
Embiid missed 2 years. Noel missed time. Simmons missed entire rookie year. Now Fultz's shoulder was mismanaged into a career-altering injury. The organization had a 28/100 medical context score — worst in the NBA. Why trade UP into that?
Player Profile: Jayson Tatum
| Position | SF/PF |
| College | Duke |
| Actual Pick | #3 (Round 1) |
| Pro Readiness | High |
| Career Stats | 5x All-Star, 3x All-NBA, Champion (2024) |
Scouting Notes
- • Elite scorer with Kobe-style game
- • Duke pedigree, playoff ready
- • Some questioned shot selection
- • Perfect fit for Stevens system
- • Matched with Jaylen Brown
Boston Celtics (Pick #3)
Team Context (2017)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Brad Stevens) | 95/100 | 12% | 11.4 |
| Development Culture | 95/100 | 20% | 19.0 |
| Running Mate (Jaylen Brown) | 90/100 | 18% | 16.2 |
| Front Office (Ainge) | 95/100 | 15% | 14.3 |
| Medical Staff | 90/100 | 12% | 10.8 |
| System Fit | 90/100 | 15% | 13.5 |
| Winning Culture | 90/100 | 8% | 7.2 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 92.8 | ||
What Happened
ECF as rookie, multiple Finals, 2024 Champion, franchise cornerstone
Context Success
Ainge traded DOWN, got future pick, still got the best player in the draft
The Other Path: Lonzo Ball (#2)
Lakers Context (2017): 48
LaVar circus, rebuild chaos, Luke Walton system didn't fit. Lonzo showed flashes but ankle issues began. Traded to Pelicans. Context score: mediocre.
Bulls Context (2021): 52
Finally in a role that fit. Career-best season brewing when injuries struck. Now hasn't played in years due to knee issues. Medical misfortune, but at least organizational context was improving.
Fultz → Boston (Original #1)
The Alternate Timeline
If Boston keeps #1 and takes Fultz: elite medical staff catches shoulder issue early. Stevens builds a role around his scoring. Plays alongside Jaylen Brown. Shoulder gets proper treatment before "yips" develop. Projected: 4x All-Star, elite two-way guard, but Boston probably doesn't get Tatum. Trade-off.
The Comparison
Point gap between Tatum (BOS) and Fultz (PHI)
Fultz → PHI
"Medical malpractice"
Ball → LAL
"Wrong circus"
Tatum → BOS
"Championship"
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Tatum #1 — Fultz was a bust"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"Philly traded UP to put an injury-prone player in an organization with the worst medical staff in the NBA. The 64-point gap is organizational murder, not scouting failure."
The ultimate lesson: Danny Ainge traded DOWN, got a future pick, and still ended up with the best player in the draft. Context-aware teams don't just win drafts — they win trades too.