The Scenario
Philadelphia took Ben Simmons #1 after "The Process" finally yielded a top pick. Brandon Ingram went #2 to the Lakers. Jaylen Brown went #3 to Boston. Traditional re-drafts now say "Brown #1." Contextual analysis reveals how Philadelphia's dysfunction and Boston's culture created divergent paths for equal talents.
Player Profile: Ben Simmons
| Position | PG/PF |
| College | LSU (one year) |
| Actual Pick | #1 (Round 1) |
| Pro Readiness | High (passing/defense) |
| Career Status | 3x All-Star, ROTY, mental health hiatus |
Scouting Notes
- • 6'10" point guard with elite vision
- • Non-shooter — massive development need
- • Generational passer and defender
- • Required culture that prioritized growth
- • Mental side of game questioned pre-draft
Philadelphia 76ers (Pick #1)
Team Context (2016)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Brett Brown) | 55/100 | 12% | 6.6 |
| Development Culture | 40/100 | 20% | 8.0 |
| Skill Development (shooting) | 25/100 | 20% | 5.0 |
| Fit with Embiid | 45/100 | 15% | 6.8 |
| Media Pressure (Philly) | 30/100 | 12% | 3.6 |
| Front Office Chaos | 35/100 | 13% | 4.5 |
| Mental Health Support | 25/100 | 8% | 2.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 37.8 | ||
What Happened
All-Star seasons, but jump shot never developed, Hawks playoff meltdown, mental health crisis
Context Failures
No shooting coach success, Embiid fit issues, toxic Philly media environment
Player Profile: Jaylen Brown
| Position | SG/SF |
| College | Cal (one year) |
| Actual Pick | #3 (Round 1) |
| Pro Readiness | Medium (raw) |
| Career Stats | 3x All-Star, Finals MVP, Champion |
Scouting Notes
- • Elite athlete, questioned basketball IQ
- • Shooting inconsistent at Cal
- • Many mocked the pick at #3
- • Required patient development
- • Brad Stevens saw the vision
Boston Celtics (Pick #3)
Team Context (2016)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Brad Stevens) | 95/100 | 12% | 11.4 |
| Development Culture | 90/100 | 20% | 18.0 |
| Skill Development | 95/100 | 20% | 19.0 |
| System Fit | 85/100 | 15% | 12.8 |
| Market Patience | 80/100 | 12% | 9.6 |
| Front Office (Ainge) | 90/100 | 13% | 11.7 |
| Winning Culture | 85/100 | 8% | 6.8 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 89.4 | ||
What Happened
Steady improvement every year, multiple Finals, 2024 Champion, Finals MVP
Context Success
Stevens system + Tatum partnership + patient development = champion
Simmons → Boston
The Alternate Timeline
Stevens builds an offense around Simmons' passing. Boston's shooting development actually gets him to 30% from three. The positive culture supports his mental health. No Embiid fit conflict. Projected: All-NBA defender, 6 All-Star appearances, Celtics make Finals in 2020 instead of losing to Heat. Not a champion, but a fulfilled career.
The Other Path: Brandon Ingram (#2)
Lakers Context (2016): 45
Post-Kobe rebuild chaos. Luke Walton coaching. No identity. Trade rumors constantly. Ingram showed flashes but was always "not enough." Traded for Anthony Davis.
Pelicans Context (2019): 62
Finally featured as a star. Made All-Star in first season. But organization couldn't build around him and Zion. Now on questionable Sacramento team.Same talent, still searching for the right context.
The Comparison
Point gap between Brown (BOS) and Simmons (PHI)
Simmons → PHI
"Unfulfilled potential"
Ingram → LAL
"Trade chip"
Brown → BOS
"Finals MVP"
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Brown #1 — Simmons is broken"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"Boston's context score was 46 points higher than Philadelphia's. Brown flourished; Simmons withered. The gap is organizational, not just talent."
The lesson: players with significant development needs require elite contexts.Simmons needed shooting development and mental health support. Philly provided neither. Brown needed patience and skill development. Boston provided both.