The Scenario
Andrew Wiggins went #1 to Cleveland (then traded to Minnesota). Jabari Parker went #2. Joel Embiid fell to #3 due to injury. Nikola Jokic went #41 — in the second round.A decade later, the two best players from this draft are the #3 pick (injuries and all) and the guy drafted while a Taco Bell commercial aired.
Andrew Wiggins
#1 • Cavaliers→TWolves
Jabari Parker
#2 • Bucks
Joel Embiid
#3 • 76ers
Nikola Jokic
#41 • Nuggets
Nikola Jokic → Denver Nuggets (#41)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Michael Malone) | 90/100 | 15% | 13.5 |
| System Fit (pace, passing) | 98/100 | 20% | 19.6 |
| Development Time | 95/100 | 15% | 14.3 |
| Front Office Patience | 98/100 | 15% | 14.7 |
| No Pressure (#41) | 100/100 | 10% | 10.0 |
| Roster Building Around Him | 90/100 | 15% | 13.5 |
| Ownership (Kroenke) | 80/100 | 10% | 8.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 94.8 | ||
What Happened
Denver let a chubby Serbian kid develop at his own pace. No pressure, no spotlight, just growth. Malone built the offense around Jokic's unprecedented passing. They drafted Murray, MPJ to complement him. 3 MVPs, a championship, and the most unique superstar in NBA history — all because Denver saw what 40 other teams missed.
Joel Embiid → Philadelphia 76ers (#3)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Brett Brown → Rivers → Nurse) | 65/100 | 15% | 9.8 |
| Medical Staff / Load Management | 70/100 | 20% | 14.0 |
| Patience (sat 2 years) | 90/100 | 15% | 13.5 |
| Roster Fit | 55/100 | 15% | 8.3 |
| Front Office (Hinkie → Colangelo → Morey) | 60/100 | 15% | 9.0 |
| Playoff Heartbreak | 40/100 | 10% | 4.0 |
| Market Pressure (Philly) | 50/100 | 10% | 5.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 74.5 | ||
What Happened
Embiid sat for 2 full years with foot injuries. Philly stayed patient (The Process). When healthy, he's arguably the most dominant center since Shaq. MVP, scoring titles, perennial top-5 player. But second-round exits, injury concerns, and Simmons drama haunt the legacy.Elite talent, organizational chaos around him.
Andrew Wiggins → Minnesota Timberwolves (#1)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Flip → Mitchell → Thibs) | 45/100 | 15% | 6.8 |
| Development System | 30/100 | 20% | 6.0 |
| Accountability Culture | 25/100 | 15% | 3.8 |
| Roster Fit | 50/100 | 15% | 7.5 |
| Max Contract Pressure | 30/100 | 10% | 3.0 |
| Market (Minnesota) | 45/100 | 10% | 4.5 |
| Ownership (Glen Taylor) | 35/100 | 15% | 5.3 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 42.2 | ||
What Happened
Minnesota gave Wiggins a max contract and zero accountability. He coasted on athleticism, never developed, became the poster boy for "empty stats." Then got traded to Golden State and became an All-Star starter, defensive stopper, and Finals key player.Same player, different context = completely different career.
Andrew Wiggins → Golden State Warriors (Trade)
The Second Chance
In Golden State: culture of accountability, defined role (defend + cut), Curry/Klay spacing, Kerr's system. Wiggins became what he was supposed to be — elite defender, efficient scorer, championship contributor. All-Star starter. Finals winner. Same guy Minnesota gave up on.
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Steve Kerr) | 95/100 | 15% | 14.3 |
| Culture (Championship) | 95/100 | 20% | 19.0 |
| Role Clarity | 90/100 | 15% | 13.5 |
| Spacing (Curry/Klay) | 95/100 | 15% | 14.3 |
| Accountability | 90/100 | 15% | 13.5 |
| No Max Pressure | 80/100 | 10% | 8.0 |
| Winning Environment | 95/100 | 10% | 9.5 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 75.8 | ||
The Development Gap
Jokic (DEN)
3x MVP, Champion
Embiid (PHI)
MVP, no ring
Wiggins (GSW)
Champion, All-Star
Wiggins (MIN)
"Empty stats"
Point swing for Jokic (#41) vs. being drafted higher to worse org
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Jokic #1, Embiid #2, everyone else irrelevant"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"Jokic at #1 to Cleveland (traded for Love) = maybe never develops. Jokic needed Denver's patience. Embiid needed Philly's willingness to tank. Wiggins needed Golden State's culture."
The 41st pick became a 3x MVP because Denver saw potential and had patience. The #1 pick became a bust-turned-champion because Golden State fixed what Minnesota broke. Development context is everything.