2015 NBA Draft
The Devin Booker Heist: How 12 Teams Passed on a Superstar
The Scenario
Minnesota took Karl-Anthony Towns #1 — the no-brainer franchise center. Lakers grabbed D'Angelo Russell #2. Philadelphia went with Jahlil Okafor #3 (oops). Then Kristaps Porziņģis at #4 to the Knicks, booed mercilessly at the draft. Fast forward to pick #13: Phoenix takes Devin Booker, a Kentucky role player who averaged 10 points per game in college. Twelve teams passed on him. That's the story. That's the crime scene.
Karl-Anthony Towns
#1 • Timberwolves
Devin Booker
#13 • Suns
Myles Turner
#11 • Pacers
Kristaps Porziņģis
#4 • Knicks
Devin Booker → Phoenix Suns (#13)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Jeff Hornacek's offense) | 75/100 | 18% | 13.5 |
| Immediate Playing Time | 90/100 | 18% | 16.2 |
| Freedom to Score (no alpha) | 95/100 | 15% | 14.3 |
| Player Development | 70/100 | 15% | 10.5 |
| Market Patience (rebuilding) | 85/100 | 12% | 10.2 |
| Long-term Commitment | 80/100 | 12% | 9.6 |
| Talent Around Him | 45/100 | 10% | 4.5 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 78.9 | ||
The Context
Booker went to the perfect development lab: a bad team with no established stars, a coach who believed in offense, and a front office with nothing to lose. He got immediate minutes, unlimited green lights, and the space to fail and learn. By year two, he was dropping 70-point games. By year four, he was an All-Star. The Suns gave him the keys, and he built a franchise around himself. Phoenix wasn't the best team in 2015 — but they were the perfect team for Devin Booker.
Karl-Anthony Towns → Minnesota Timberwolves (#1)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Talent Level (generational) | 95/100 | 20% | 19.0 |
| HC (Flip Saunders → Thibodeau) | 75/100 | 18% | 13.5 |
| Young Core Fit (Wiggins, LaVine) | 80/100 | 15% | 12.0 |
| Organizational Direction | 85/100 | 12% | 10.2 |
| Player Development | 70/100 | 12% | 8.4 |
| Market Pressure | 65/100 | 12% | 7.8 |
| Immediate Impact | 90/100 | 11% | 9.9 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 81.6 | ||
The Context
Towns was the consensus #1 for a reason: a 7-footer who could shoot threes, pass like a guard, and protect the rim. Minnesota had been terrible for years, but they were building something with Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine. Towns became the centerpiece immediately — Rookie of the Year, multiple All-Star selections, one of the most versatile big men of his generation. The pick was right. The fit was right. Sometimes the obvious choice is obvious because it's correct.
Jahlil Okafor → Philadelphia 76ers (#3)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Positional Obsolescence (post-up center) | 20/100 | 20% | 4.0 |
| Defensive Limitations | 25/100 | 18% | 4.5 |
| Fit with Noel/Embiid | 15/100 | 15% | 2.3 |
| Pace of NBA Evolution | 30/100 | 12% | 3.6 |
| Offensive Skillset (post moves) | 70/100 | 12% | 8.4 |
| College Production (Duke) | 85/100 | 12% | 10.2 |
| Character/Work Ethic Issues | 40/100 | 11% | 4.4 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 36.7 | ||
The Context
Okafor was a throwback: dominant post game, high basketball IQ, Duke pedigree. The problem? The NBA didn't care about post-up centers anymore. He couldn't defend the pick-and-roll, couldn't stretch the floor, couldn't switch onto guards. Philadelphia already had Nerlens Noel and Joel Embiid waiting in the wings. They drafted a dinosaur when the league was evolving into the three-point era. By year three, he was a backup. By year five, he was out of the league. 7.2 career win shares. Porzingis went one pick later with 49.4. Brutal.
Kristaps Porziņģis → New York Knicks (#4)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Modern Skillset (stretch big) | 90/100 | 18% | 16.2 |
| HC (Derek Fisher... yikes) | 40/100 | 18% | 7.2 |
| Organizational Dysfunction | 35/100 | 15% | 5.3 |
| Market Pressure (MSG spotlight) | 50/100 | 15% | 7.5 |
| Injury Risk (7'3" frame) | 55/100 | 12% | 6.6 |
| Talent Level | 85/100 | 12% | 10.2 |
| International Adjustment | 65/100 | 10% | 6.5 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 60.7 | ||
The Context
Knicks fans booed the pick. "Kristaps who?" they said. Then he showed up: a 7'3" Latvian who could shoot from anywhere, block shots, and handle the ball. The "Unicorn" nickname stuck. New York's dysfunction limited him — bad coaching, front office chaos, constant trade rumors. He still became an All-Star. Then injuries hit. He was traded to Dallas, then Washington, then Boston, where he finally won a championship in 2024. The talent was elite. The Knicks just couldn't keep him.
Myles Turner → Indiana Pacers (#11)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Frank Vogel's defensive system) | 85/100 | 18% | 15.3 |
| Roster Fit (stretch-5 need) | 90/100 | 18% | 16.2 |
| Player Development Track Record | 80/100 | 15% | 12.0 |
| Organizational Stability | 85/100 | 15% | 12.8 |
| Market Patience (small market) | 90/100 | 12% | 10.8 |
| Long-term Role Clarity | 85/100 | 12% | 10.2 |
| Young Core (George, Turner) | 75/100 | 10% | 7.5 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 84.7 | ||
The Context
Turner at #11 is one of the draft's quietest success stories. Indiana needed a modern center who could protect the rim AND space the floor. Turner gave them both: elite shot-blocking (multiple blocks titles), reliable three-point shooting, and the professionalism to be a franchise cornerstone for nearly a decade. Frank Vogel's defensive system let Turner thrive. The Pacers never pressured him to be more than he was. He became exactly what they needed: a two-way anchor who elevated every team around him. 48.7 win shares and counting. Elite value at #11.
Montrezl Harrell → Houston Rockets (#32)
The Context
Harrell at #32 was highway robbery. Undersized center, relentless motor, bench energy guy who became Sixth Man of the Year in 2020. 42.9 win shares from the second round? Better than nine lottery picks from this class. Houston found gold where others saw limitations. He carved out a decade-long career as a spark plug for contenders. Sometimes motor beats measurables.
Devin Booker → New York Knicks (#4)
The Alternate Timeline
What if the Knicks had skipped Porzingis and taken Booker instead? A 19-year-old scoring prodigy under the Madison Square Garden lights, mentored by Carmelo Anthony. The upside is tantalizing: Booker becomes a New York icon, the face of the franchise for 15 years. The downside? Knicks dysfunction could've stunted his growth. Bad coaching, front office chaos, constant trade rumors. Would Booker have flourished in the spotlight, or been crushed by the pressure? Phoenix gave him space to breathe. New York might've suffocated him.
The Class of 2015 (Win Shares)
KAT (#1)
The right #1
Booker (#13)
The heist
Turner (#11)
Perfect fit
Porziņģis (#4)
Talent + injuries
Okafor (#3)
The bust
Teams that passed on Devin Booker before Phoenix grabbed him at #13
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Towns #1, Booker #2, Porziņģis #3, Turner #4"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"Towns was the right #1. But Booker at #13 is a crime. Phoenix gave him the perfect situation: no stars, no pressure, freedom to fail. Minnesota, Philly, New York? He might've been buried on the bench or rushed into a role he wasn't ready for. Context made the steal possible."
The 2015 draft proves the core thesis of contextual analysis: Talent matters, but situation determines whether that talent gets unleashed. Booker wasn't the 13th best player in this class — he was the second or third best. But he needed Phoenix's chaos to become a superstar. That's not luck. That's fit. Twelve teams missed it. The Suns didn't.