The Scenario
Blake Griffin went #1 as the consensus best player. Two MVPs, an MVP runner-up, and multiple All-Stars followed. But the greatest player in this draft — Stephen Curry — went 7th because teams thought he was "too small" and "just a shooter." This draft proves context isn't just about the team — it's about the league's blind spots.
Blake Griffin
Pick #1 • Clippers
James Harden
Pick #3 • Thunder
Stephen Curry
Pick #7 • Warriors
Stephen Curry → Golden State Warriors (#7)
Team Context (2009)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Don Nelson → Kerr) | 85/100 | 15% | 12.8 |
| System Fit | 95/100 | 20% | 19.0 |
| Roster Building | 90/100 | 15% | 13.5 |
| Market (Bay Area) | 85/100 | 10% | 8.5 |
| PG Dev History | 70/100 | 15% | 10.5 |
| Draft Pressure (#7) | 90/100 | 10% | 9.0 |
| Ownership (Lacob) | 95/100 | 15% | 14.3 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 88.0 | ||
What Happened
The Warriors built an entire system around Curry's shooting. When Steve Kerr arrived, they unlocked small-ball death lineups that changed basketball forever. Patient ownership let them draft Klay Thompson (2011) and Draymond Green (2012) to complete the core.4 championships. Changed the sport.
James Harden → Oklahoma City Thunder (#3)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Scott Brooks) | 65/100 | 15% | 9.8 |
| System Fit (6th man role) | 75/100 | 20% | 15.0 |
| Teammates (KD, Westbrook) | 90/100 | 15% | 13.5 |
| Market (Small) | 70/100 | 10% | 7.0 |
| Development Path | 80/100 | 15% | 12.0 |
| Draft Pressure (#3) | 60/100 | 10% | 6.0 |
| Ownership (cheap) | 40/100 | 15% | 6.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 71.5 | ||
What Happened
Harden thrived as a 6th man alongside KD and Westbrook. Won 6th Man of the Year. But cheap ownership traded him to Houston over $4M. In Houston he became an MVP...but never won a ring. OKC's ownership cost them a dynasty.
Blake Griffin → LA Clippers (#1)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Vinny Del Negro) | 35/100 | 15% | 5.3 |
| System Fit | 65/100 | 20% | 13.0 |
| Roster Building | 60/100 | 15% | 9.0 |
| Market (LA, but Clippers) | 50/100 | 10% | 5.0 |
| Development | 55/100 | 15% | 8.3 |
| Draft Pressure (#1) | 40/100 | 10% | 4.0 |
| Ownership (Sterling) | 20/100 | 15% | 3.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 55.2 | ||
What Happened
Blake became Lob City's poster boy alongside Chris Paul. Spectacular dunker, ROY, 6x All-Star. But the Clippers were dysfunctional under Donald Sterling, and they never got past the second round. Great career. No rings. Classic Clippers.
Stephen Curry → Minnesota Timberwolves (#5)
The Alternate Timeline
Minnesota picked TWO point guards before Curry (Rubio at #5, Flynn at #6). If they'd taken Curry instead? That era's Timberwolves were a black hole — bad coaching, bad ownership, bad culture. Curry's ankle injuries might have ended him there.Instead of revolutionizing basketball, he'd be "what could have been."
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Kurt Rambis) | 25/100 | 15% | 3.8 |
| System Fit | 30/100 | 20% | 6.0 |
| Medical Staff | 35/100 | 15% | 5.3 |
| Market (Small) | 50/100 | 10% | 5.0 |
| Development | 30/100 | 15% | 4.5 |
| Ownership (Glen Taylor) | 35/100 | 15% | 5.3 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 38.2 | ||
The Draft Class Comparison
Curry
4 rings, changed NBA
Harden
MVP, 0 rings
Griffin
All-Star, 0 rings
Curry (MIN)
Hypothetical bust
Point swing for Curry: Warriors vs. Timberwolves
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Curry #1, Harden #2, Griffin drops to #5"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"Curry to Minnesota at #1 might be the worst outcome. The Warriors at #7 was perfect."
The "too small" point guard became the greatest shooter ever — because Golden State built a system around him. Minnesota would have buried him. Sometimes falling in the draft is the best thing that can happen.