The Scenario
Portland won the lottery. The consensus #1 was Greg Oden — a dominant college center compared to Bill Russell. Kevin Durant was the skinny scorer from Texas.
Portland chose Oden. Injuries destroyed his career. Durant became a top-15 player ever. But was Portland's decision actually wrong at the time?
Greg Oden
| Position | C |
| College | Ohio State |
| Pro Readiness | High (dominant) |
| Career | 105 games (injuries) |
Bill Russell comparisons. Two-way force. Championship-level center... if healthy.
Kevin Durant
| Position | SF |
| College | Texas |
| Pro Readiness | Medium (thin frame) |
| Career | 2× Champ, 2× Finals MVP, MVP |
Unstoppable scorer. 7-footer with guard skills. Questions about strength at next level.
Portland picks Greg Oden (#1)
Team Context (2007)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Nate McMillan) | 70/100 | 15% | 10.5 |
| System Fit (need rim protector) | 90/100 | 20% | 18.0 |
| Existing Core (LMA, Roy) | 85/100 | 15% | 12.8 |
| Organization | 65/100 | 15% | 9.8 |
| C Dev History | 70/100 | 15% | 10.5 |
| Draft Pressure (#1) | 40/100 | 10% | 4.0 |
| Market (Portland) | 60/100 | 10% | 6.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 74.50 | ||
Why The Pick Made Sense
Portland had Brandon Roy (SG) and LaMarcus Aldridge (PF). They needed a rim-protecting center to complete the core. Oden was the best center prospect since Shaq. The fit was perfect — on paper.
Portland picks Kevin Durant (#1)
Team Context (2007)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Nate McMillan) | 70/100 | 15% | 10.5 |
| System Fit (another wing?) | 50/100 | 20% | 10.0 |
| Roster Overlap (Roy = SG/SF) | 45/100 | 15% | 6.8 |
| Organization | 65/100 | 15% | 9.8 |
| SF Dev History | 60/100 | 15% | 9.0 |
| Draft Pressure (#1) | 40/100 | 10% | 4.0 |
| Timeline (win now) | 55/100 | 10% | 5.5 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 55.75 | ||
The Complication
Durant's position overlapped with Brandon Roy. Both were ball-dominant wings. Portland would've had to figure out shot distribution between Roy, Durant, and Aldridge.Not impossible, but messier than Oden filling the obvious hole.
Seattle picks Kevin Durant (#2)
Team Context (2007)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (P.J. Carlesimo→) | 55/100 | 15% | 8.3 |
| System Fit (blank slate) | 85/100 | 20% | 17.0 |
| Roster (rebuild mode) | 90/100 | 15% | 13.5 |
| Organization (new ownership) | 70/100 | 15% | 10.5 |
| SF Dev History | 75/100 | 15% | 11.3 |
| Draft Pressure (#2) | 60/100 | 10% | 6.0 |
| Timeline (full rebuild) | 95/100 | 10% | 9.5 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 78.25 | ||
Why It Worked
Seattle (→ OKC) was rebuilding from scratch. Durant could be THE guy from Day 1. No sharing.
The Result
ROY, scoring titles, MVP, Finals appearance by Year 5. Built around him entirely.
The Tragedy: What Could Have Been
If Oden had stayed healthy, Portland's "Big Three" of Roy, Aldridge, and Oden would have been terrifying. They made the playoffs together exactly... never.
82
Games Roy & Oden played together
0
Playoff series won
3
Knee surgeries for Oden
The Full Picture
| Scenario | Fit Score | Logic at the Time |
|---|---|---|
| Portland → Oden | 75/100 | Fills biggest need, completes core |
| Portland → Durant | 62/100 | Position overlap with Roy |
| Seattle → Durant | 82/100 | Blank slate rebuild around him |
The Verdict
Portland's pick was defensible. Oden's fit score (75) was higher than Durant's would've been (62) for their specific situation. They had a core that needed a center. They got a generational center prospect.
The failure wasn't scouting or fit analysis — it was injury luck. You can't predict three knee surgeries. Portland made a reasonable choice that became a disaster through no fault of their evaluation.
Sometimes context can't save you from chaos.