2006 NBA Draft
When Bargnani Went First: The Draft That Ignored Aldridge, Roy, and a Second-Round Legend
The Scenario
Toronto took Andrea Bargnani #1 — a 7-footer with a silky jump shot who never became that guy. Chicago grabbed LaMarcus Aldridge #2. Charlotte went with Adam Morrison #3 (yikes).What if the lottery had been different? What if Bargnani landed in San Antonio's system? What if Brandon Roy hadn't been destroyed by injuries? What if Kyle Lowry at #24 had been paired with a real contender from day one?
Andrea Bargnani
#1 • Raptors
The bust
LaMarcus Aldridge
#2 • Bulls
Should've been #1
Adam Morrison
#3 • Bobcats
The bigger bust
Brandon Roy
#6 • Timberwolves
Tragic injuries
Andrea Bargnani → Toronto Raptors (#1)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Sam Mitchell — defense first) | 45/100 | 18% | 8.1 |
| Development Infrastructure | 35/100 | 15% | 5.3 |
| Roster Fit (no veteran mentors) | 30/100 | 18% | 5.4 |
| Organizational Patience | 40/100 | 15% | 6.0 |
| Role Clarity (forced into #1 role) | 25/100 | 12% | 3.0 |
| Market Pressure (first #1 pick!) | 20/100 | 12% | 2.4 |
| Talent Fit (Euro big in physical East) | 35/100 | 10% | 3.5 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 32.5 | ||
The Context
Bargnani was a 7-foot Italian with a sweet stroke and zero interest in banging inside. Toronto drafted him #1 and immediately threw him into a tough, physical Eastern Conference with Sam Mitchell demanding defense Bargnani couldn't give. No veteran big to teach him. No offensive system built for floor-spacing bigs. Just "you're the guy now" pressure in a basketball-starved Canadian market. He never developed post defense, never became a rebounder, and flamed out as one of the worst #1 picks of the 2000s. The fit was catastrophic.
LaMarcus Aldridge → Chicago Bulls (#2)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Scott Skiles — structured offense) | 75/100 | 18% | 13.5 |
| Roster Fit (Ben Wallace, veteran PFs) | 85/100 | 18% | 15.3 |
| Development Infrastructure | 72/100 | 15% | 10.8 |
| Market Patience (Bulls could wait) | 80/100 | 15% | 12.0 |
| Role Clarity (4th/5th option) | 82/100 | 12% | 9.8 |
| Organizational Stability | 78/100 | 12% | 9.4 |
| Long-term Vision (building post-Jordan) | 70/100 | 10% | 7.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 78.0 | ||
The Context
Chicago got it right. Aldridge had elite footwork, a smooth mid-range game, and the temperament to develop slowly. The Bulls paired him with Ben Wallace (defensive anchor), gave him time behind veteran bigs, and let him ease into a #2 role. 115.6 career win shares. 7x All-Star. 19 PPG for his career. Chicago's system — structured offense, defensive accountability, patient development — was perfect for a skilled big who needed reps, not pressure. This is how you develop a #2 pick into a 15-year All-Star.
Brandon Roy → Minnesota → Portland (#6)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Nate McMillan in Portland) | 75/100 | 18% | 13.5 |
| Roster Fit (needed go-to scorer) | 80/100 | 18% | 14.4 |
| Medical Staff (knee issues early) | 30/100 | 15% | 4.5 |
| Role Clarity (immediate starter) | 65/100 | 15% | 9.8 |
| Market Pressure (Blazers desperate) | 50/100 | 12% | 6.0 |
| Development History (good track record) | 68/100 | 12% | 8.2 |
| Injury Risk Management | 25/100 | 10% | 2.5 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 58.0 | ||
The Context
Brandon Roy was special. 3x All-Star. Rookie of the Year. Clutch gene. The Blazers loved him.But his knees were made of glass, and Portland's medical staff didn't catch it early enough.He played through pain, gutted out heroic playoff performances, and retired at 27 with degenerative knees. 37.4 career win shares in just 326 games — that's a 70+ WS pace if he stayed healthy. Roy in Portland was a perfect basketball fit. The tragedy was medical, not developmental. What if he'd landed somewhere with better injury prevention protocols? What if he'd been load-managed from day one?
Kyle Lowry → Memphis Grizzlies (#24)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Mike Fratello — defense) | 60/100 | 18% | 10.8 |
| Roster Fit (Mike Conley drafted next year) | 40/100 | 18% | 7.2 |
| Development Infrastructure (Grit 'N Grind culture) | 55/100 | 15% | 8.3 |
| Playing Time (stuck behind vets) | 35/100 | 15% | 5.3 |
| Role Clarity (backup PG) | 50/100 | 12% | 6.0 |
| Market Pressure (low stakes) | 70/100 | 12% | 8.4 |
| Long-term Fit (traded after 2 years) | 30/100 | 10% | 3.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 48.0 | ||
The Context
Kyle Lowry at #24. 112.6 career win shares. 6x All-Star. NBA champion. One of the best point guards of the 2010s. Memphis drafted him, played him sparingly, then shipped him to Houston. It took years for teams to realize Lowry's grit, leadership, and winning DNA. What if a smarter team had taken him at #10 and given him 30 minutes from day one? The Grizzlies didn't ruin him — they just didn't appreciate what they had. Lowry thrived later because Toronto gave him the keys. Memphis never did.
Paul Millsap → Utah Jazz (#47 — SECOND ROUND!)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Jerry Sloan — hard-nosed development) | 90/100 | 18% | 16.2 |
| Roster Fit (Boozer/AK47 mentors) | 85/100 | 18% | 15.3 |
| Development Infrastructure (Jazz system) | 88/100 | 15% | 13.2 |
| Playing Time (earned rotation spot fast) | 75/100 | 15% | 11.3 |
| Market Pressure (zero — 2nd rounder) | 95/100 | 12% | 11.4 |
| Organizational Stability (consistent system) | 82/100 | 12% | 9.8 |
| Talent Fit (undersized 4 — perfect for Jazz) | 80/100 | 10% | 8.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 85.3 | ||
The Context
Paul Millsap. #47 overall. 95.4 career win shares. 4x All-Star. More win shares than everyone in the 2006 draft except Aldridge and Lowry. Utah's player development under Jerry Sloan was legendary: hard-nosed, no shortcuts, earn your minutes. Millsap — an undersized power forward from Louisiana Tech — learned from Carlos Boozer and Andrei Kirilenko, played within the system, and became one of the most efficient two-way forwards in the league. This is the draft steal of the decade. 29 teams passed on him twice. Utah turned a second-rounder into a cornerstone.
Andrea Bargnani → San Antonio Spurs
The Alternate Timeline
Imagine Bargnani under Pop. Learning from Tim Duncan. Protected defensively by Duncan and Bruce Bowen. Used as a floor-spacing 4/5 in the Spurs' motion offense. No pressure to be "the guy." No Toronto media crushing him. Just "be a 7-foot shooter and we'll handle the rest." Pop would've taught him positioning, made him passable on defense, and turned him into a 15 PPG floor-spacer for a championship team. Instead, Toronto asked him to be Dirk. He wasn't. +44 point swing from actual outcome to Spurs hypothetical.
Rajon Rondo → Phoenix → Boston (#21)
The Context
Phoenix drafted Rondo #21, then immediately flipped him to Boston in a draft-night trade.Boston paired him with KG, Pierce, and Ray Allen. Instant championship culture. Doc Rivers coaching. Thibs as defensive coordinator. Rondo couldn't shoot, but he didn't need to — he had three Hall of Famers to feed. 61.8 career win shares, 4x All-Star, NBA champion.Perfect situation: veteran team, pass-first role, elite defense. What if Phoenix had kept him and tried to run Seven Seconds or Less with a non-shooter at PG? Disaster. Boston maximized his strengths (vision, defense, tempo control) and hid his weakness (shooting). Context = everything.
The Class of 2006 (Actual Outcomes)
LaMarcus Aldridge
7x All-Star
Kyle Lowry (#24)
6x All-Star, Champ
Paul Millsap (#47!)
4x All-Star (2nd rd!)
Rajon Rondo (#21)
4x All-Star, Champ
Rudy Gay (#8)
Solid starter
Bargnani (#1)
Bust at #1
Morrison (#3)
One of the worst
Win Share gap: Lowry (#24) vs. Bargnani (#1)
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"Aldridge should've gone #1. Roy at #2. Lowry way higher. Bargnani was a bust."
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"Aldridge thrived in Chicago's patient system. Bargnani died in Toronto's chaos. Roy's knees betrayed him — would load management have saved his career? Lowry was slept on for years because Memphis didn't give him minutes. And Paul Millsap at #47 is the greatest second-round steal of the 2000s — Utah's development system turned a tweener into an All-Star."
The 2006 draft is a masterclass in fit vs. talent. Bargnani had talent — he just landed in the worst possible situation. Millsap had "character concerns" and size questions — he landed in the best possible situation. Talent gets you drafted. Context determines your career. Toronto should've taken Aldridge or Roy. Charlotte should've avoided Morrison. Utah struck gold with Millsap. And the league ignored Kyle Lowry for five years because he was 6'0" and didn't fit the prototype. Context told the story. The draft order got it backwards.