The Scenario
Anthony Davis was the consensus #1 — unibrow and all. Damian Lillard went #6 out of Weber State, overlooked because of his small-school pedigree. Bradley Beal went #3.Twelve years later: AD has the ring, Dame has the loyalty, and this class is stacked.
Anthony Davis
#1 • Hornets→Lakers
MKG
#2 • Bobcats
Bradley Beal
#3 • Wizards
Damian Lillard
#6 • Trail Blazers
Anthony Davis → New Orleans Hornets (#1)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Monty Williams) | 65/100 | 15% | 9.8 |
| Supporting Cast (NOP era) | 55/100 | 18% | 9.9 |
| Development | 80/100 | 15% | 12.0 |
| Market (Small) | 70/100 | 10% | 7.0 |
| Injury Concerns | 45/100 | 17% | 7.7 |
| Playoff Success (NOP) | 45/100 | 15% | 6.8 |
| Trade to Lakers | 90/100 | 10% | 9.0 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 68.2 | ||
What Happened
AD was dominant in New Orleans but couldn't break through — they never built a good enough roster around him. He forced a trade to LA, paired with LeBron, and won a championship.The talent was always there. He needed to leave to win.
Damian Lillard → Portland Trail Blazers (#6)
| Factor | Rating | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| HC (Terry Stotts) | 75/100 | 15% | 11.3 |
| Franchise Commitment | 95/100 | 18% | 17.1 |
| Playing Time / Green Light | 95/100 | 15% | 14.3 |
| Market (Portland culture) | 90/100 | 12% | 10.8 |
| Running Mate (CJ) | 80/100 | 15% | 12.0 |
| Playoff Success | 55/100 | 15% | 8.3 |
| Loyalty Culture | 95/100 | 10% | 9.5 |
| TOTAL FIT SCORE | 81.8 | ||
What Happened
Portland let Dame cook from day 1. ROY, 7x All-Star, some of the most iconic playoff moments ever (0.9, the OKC wave). He stayed loyal for 11 years through everything. No ring, but beloved. Eventually traded to Milwaukee chasing one.Portland was the perfect city for his personality — until it wasn't enough.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist → Charlotte Bobcats (#2)
What Happened
MKG was elite defensively but literally couldn't shoot. Charlotte tried to rebuild his shot for years — it never worked. The Bobcats/Hornets were a mess organizationally, but even a good team couldn't fix his jumper.Some limitations are physical, not contextual. MKG's shot was broken beyond repair.
Bradley Beal → Washington Wizards (#3)
What Happened
Beal became a 3x All-Star and 30 PPG scorer, but Washington was always mediocre around him. He signed a supermax to stay ($251M) instead of chasing rings. Injuries have slowed him down.Elite scorer stuck in purgatory. Loyalty paid him well but cost him shots at a title.
The Draft Class
Dame (POR)
Iconic, loyal
AD (NOP→LAL)
Champion (had to leave)
Beal (WAS)
Paid, no wins
MKG (CHA)
Couldn't shoot
Point swing: Dame (#6 POR) vs. MKG (#2 CHA)
The Verdict
Traditional Re-Draft Says:
"AD #1, Dame #2, Beal #3"
Contextual Re-Draft Says:
"Dame's fit in Portland was perfect for his personality. AD needed to force a trade to win. MKG's ceiling was physical, not contextual. Beal needed a better organization."
The small-school point guard became Portland's greatest player ever. The consensus #1 had to leave to win a ring. Context isn't just about talent — it's about fit.